915
FXUS65 KSLC 110953
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
353 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively cooler conditions will remain in place
across central and northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming on Friday,
with continued hot conditions expected across southern Utah. A
warming and drying trend is anticipated across the region through
early next week, with mid-level moisture bringing some potential
for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms in the southern
mountains from Monday forward.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Early Friday morning
analysis showed a departing shortwave trough moving eastward
across Montana and into the Northern Plains, with a high pressure
ridge parked across Southern California into northern portions of
the Baja Peninsula. In between, Utah and SW Wyoming resides
within a region of modest WNW flow. Heading into the weekend,
models are well-clustered around the idea of steady mid-level
height rises as the above-mentioned high pressure ridge expands
across the Western CONUS and Great Basin. In terms of sensible
weather, this will translate into a steady warming trend, with
maintenance of dry conditions, with the exception of an isolated
late-day shower or storm across the high Uintas.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Little change in this long term
forecast compared to the last. The pattern evolution will be for a
ridge centered over southern California to keep conditions hot and
mostly dry through the period. The ridge gradually shifts offshore
by early next week. This will allow for some moisture transport to
return. Very little forcing will be in place so any high-based
diurnal convection that does form will likely be tied to the
terrain. A grazing trough on Wednesday will bring slightly more lift
that could help initiate a bit more convection. A more noticeable
change will be temperatures cooling back down to near normal.
Otherwise, conditions will warm back up towards the end of the week
with small diurnal PoPs remaining possible.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Dry weather with clear skies will continue as
light southerly winds transition to light northerly winds during the
day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Dry weather and clear
skies will continue. Winds will transition to mostly northerly
across the airspace during the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An area of high pressure will build across the region
through the upcoming weekend. As such, a steady warming and
drying trend will be seen across Utah, with high temperatures
bumping up 2-3 degrees each day across the northern and central
portions of Utah in particular, with more modest warming across
southern Utah. Relative humidity across the region will remain
very low each day, with minimum values staying in the
single-digits to low-teens. Additionally, poor overnight recovery
is expected across much of Utah, but especially across
southwestern, eastern Utah, and the West Desert through at least
Monday morning. Recoveries will only range from 25-35% in these
areas, and as low as around 18% for portions of eastern Utah, and
locally lower than this in thermal belts.

By late Sunday/ Monday, there is increasing confidence that mid-
level moisture will begin to work into the southern half of Utah.
As such, we`ll begin to see afternoon build-ups of cumulus and
potentially isolated high-based showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the southern Utah mountains. The primary
threats associated with these showers will be gusty and erratic
outflow winds and dry lightning, which could become problematic
after an extended dry period. This moisture is anticipated to
linger through the week, with each day gaining increasing
probability of receiving precipitation at the surface. That said,
chances for wetting rain is expected to be quite low through this
period as sufficient lower level moisture will be lacking, but
there is some potential for increasing precipitation probabilities
through the week. There remains a good deal of uncertainty
regarding where, when and how much precipitation might fall with
this increase in moisture, and there are some forecast scenarios
that do not allow for much in the way of any convective activity
until Thursday or Friday.

Transport winds will largely remain out of the west-northwest
through early next week, before becoming increasingly westerly by
midweek and finally southwesterly by late in the week. Relatively
new developments in the model suite indicate the presence of an
area of low pressure drifting through the Northern Rockies
Tuesday. Depending on the track and strength of this low, this
could drag a grazing, dry cold front into northern Utah in the
Tuesday-Wednesday period. Ahead of this potential feature, locally
critical fire weather conditions may be possible Tuesday due to
the combination of gusty winds and continued low humidity.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Mahan

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