Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
774 FXUS65 KSLC 142127 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 327 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain centered near the Four Corners over the next few days, allowing a more moist airmass to move back into the area as temperatures stay above seasonal normals. With the increase in moisture, Utah and southwest Wyoming will see a daily threat of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...High pressure remains centered over the Four Corners this afternoon, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a southerly flow aloft. This flow continues to draw moisture northward back into the area, with satellite derived PWs primarily in the 0.5 to 0.6 range. Compared to yesterday, showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon are more wet in nature, given more moisture in the lower levels. However, still seeing wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with some storms, particularly over northern and central Utah, with the threat of microbursts continuing into the early evening hours. Temperatures remain on the hot side this afternoon, though with highs maxing out around 5F above seasonal normals, they are not at the near record levels observed the past few days. Anticipating little change in the pattern in the short term, with the ridge axis continuing to meander around the Four Corners region, allowing moisture to continue to trickle in. This will result in a daily threat of increasingly wet afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to continue to stay just above normal for this time of year over the next few days. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 355 AM MDT...Much of the long-term period will remain fairly consistent, with temperatures hovering around 5 degrees above normal and daily thunderstorm chances across many areas. The large-scale pattern will feature the same persistent ridge that has recently moved just to our east. By Tuesday, this ridge will start to inch its way back westward, likely strengthening over Utah by mid-week. While temperatures will increase by a few degrees, we luckily aren`t expecting the same heatwave as we experienced last week. With moisture still lingering in the mid-levels, daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through Day 7, mainly across southern/eastern UT and across higher terrain where moisture availability is the highest. There, given very dry low levels (and thus an inverted V sounding), the main threat will be gusty microburst winds. Flash flooding is also a possibility given slow storm motions under the ridge and slightly above-normal PW, despite poor precipitation efficiency. Heading into the weekend, moisture will begin to overspread the area once again, thus we may see more widespread precipitation and flash flooding potential, especially across southern areas. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light northwest winds will prevail through around 03Z. Light southeast winds will prevail from around 03Z through the morning. Isolated showers with gusty, erratic outflow winds could alter wind speed and direction from 03-09Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms around southern Utah will be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds through around 06Z. Further north, isolated showers with gusty, erratic outflow winds will last through around 09Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Moisture continues to increase over the area this afternoon with high pressure centered over the Four Corners region. Seeing showers and thunderstorms develop, a mix of wet and dry, over the higher terrain. The threat of storms will continue into the evening before diminishing. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty microburst winds. With moisture remaining in place, a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist for much of the week, through showers and storms will be transitioning to be wet in nature. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478>484-488- 489-492>498. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Wilson For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity