![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
637 FXCA62 TJSJ 122118 CCA AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 518 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The recently developed Tropical Storm Ernesto will approach the region late Tuesday, bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the region. The areas most impacted will be the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, and eastern Puerto Rico. A significant risk of flooding is expected, with mudslides likely in areas of steep terrain. Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate as well. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday... A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At this time the former Potential Tropical Cyclone Five has become Tropical Storm Ernesto, now located about 590 MI ESE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This system is expected to move near or over the area by early Wednesday morning, bringing tropical storm force winds and periods of heavy rain, with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides. Marine and coastal conditions will become hazardous by Tuesday evening. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. By Tuesday through Wednesday, a gradual increase in rainfall and winds will be observed as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves closer to the islands. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast track has this system moving just to the northeast of Puerto Rico and over the island of Saint Croix. Therefore, there is a high potential for flooding rains across the region. Tropical force winds and/or wind gusts will also be likely beginning on Tuesday through Wednesday through the region. Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the progress of this system and review their tropical emergency plans.Please refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin (TCPAT5) issued by National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Local Statements (HLSSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for the most up to date information. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.../prev discussion/ For the beginning of the long-term forecast, hazards will continue to depend on the potential impacts from the now Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, which is forecast to move west-northwestward across or near the region as a tropical storm. The main threats associated with this system are flooding rains, landslides, windy or possible tropical storm conditions and hazardous coastal and marine conditions. PTC Five should start to move away from the area on Thursday generating southerly winds. Residual moisture will continue to be driven by the wind flow into our region causing additional rain. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through early Thursday. Weather conditions are expected to quickly improve at the end of the week as a drier-than-normal air mass, with pockets of low-level moisture, moves into the area and we switch to a more typical pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mostly VFR conds can be expcd for most of the pd. Although VCTS/SHRA could at times impact TJBQ through 22z. Winds will drop aft 22z btwn 8-12 kts mostly from the E but incrg up to 20 kts and hier gsts and shifting out of the NE aft 13/14z as the Potential Trpcl Cyclone 5 approaches. PROB30 groups were introduced for the USVI TAF sites after 13/17z as psbl rainbands could start filtering in promoting low VIS and CIG. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Ernesto, located 590 miles ESE of San Juan, is expected to move into the local waters by Tuesday evening into Wednesday as a tropical cyclone. However, marine conditions in our eastern Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage could deteriorate as early as Tuesday morning. Further deterioration in marine and weather conditions is expected Wednesday through Thursday. && .BEACH FORECAST... Beach conditions will deteriorate as Tropical Storm Ernesto approaches the region. Large breaking waves are expected to impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from late Tuesday into early Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring rainfall accumulation of 6 to 8 inches for portions of the Virgin Islands, eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the interior. The risk of flooding will be significant, with rapid river rises, and mudslides likely. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Tropical Storm Warning for PRZ001>013. Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for PRZ001>013. VI...Tropical Storm Warning for VIZ001-002. Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for VIZ001-002. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711-712-716-723-726-733-735-741- 742-745. && $$ RADAR/HLS...ERG IDSS...MRR/CAM SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...GRS