Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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662 FXUS64 KSJT 082309 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A complex of storms that developed in the Permian Basin earlier this morning, was moving southeast through Western Crockett country this afternoon. there were also a few showers in eastern Brown and San Saba Counties, in association with tropical storm Beryle in East Texas. These storms will weaken and end with loss of daytime heating. A few storms, however, may redevelop later tonight....mainly west of a San Angelo to Sonora line, and again Tuesday along a south of a Big Lake to San Angelo to Junction line...as some weak disturbances move through northwest flow aloft. Drier air, otherwise, will move in behind the cold front, limiting rainfall chances to the north. Temperatures rebound back to highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Our area will be under weak north-northwest flow aloft Wednesday, and may have a weak, embedded disturbance entering the area (mainly over the western half). At this point, carrying slight chance PoPs for showers and thunderstorms in our southern counties, and may need to expanded these PoPs depending on how models trend the setup for Wednesday. For late this week through the weekend, seasonably hot conditions are expected for our area. A strong upper level high is forecast to be centered over Utah Friday, the Utah/Colorado border Saturday, and over Colorado on Sunday. With the distance from the upper high and relative weakness in the heights aloft over our area, cannot rule out the possibility for an isolated couple of showers/storms in the afternoon hours each day Thursday into the weekend. With low confidence in occurrence and placement of any convection, PoPs are less than 15 percent for our area. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s/around 100 degrees in the Big Country and Concho Valley, and in the mid to upper 90s across the rest of our area. Morning lows will be mostly in the lower 70s Thursday and Friday, and lower to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. The global models have some differences early next week with the positioning of the upper level ridge, but not expecting much change in our weather. Proximity of the ridge and strength of the 850mb thermal ridge will determine how hot it gets in our area. At this point, have temperatures creeping up early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. An isolated rain shower is possible throughout the TAF period. However, the chances of it impacting a terminal are minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 93 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 96 71 98 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 71 94 70 96 / 10 20 10 20 Brownwood 68 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 69 93 70 96 / 10 10 0 10 Ozona 72 91 71 94 / 20 30 10 20 Brady 70 93 71 95 / 0 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...41