997
FXUS64 KSJT 101121
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Pretty quiet in the short term portion of the forecast. Nocturnal
mid level cloud cover has been a decent indicator of where some
dirurnal showers and storms will eventually develop the last few
days. Early this morning, that cloud cover is over portions of
Central Texas and across the South Plains, where the latest CAMs
show convection eventually developing later today. West Central
Texas is in a gap between these 2 areas and looks to be a drier
forecast and will not add POPs to the forecast at this point. AS
for temperatures, San Angelo hit 100 degrees again yesterday and
will boost readings slightly across the Concho Valley to account
for the models being a tad too cool lately. Light winds will
continue to allow morning lows to drop into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For much of the long term, West Central Texas will sit between
two upper level highs, one located off the east coast of the US
and the other situated over the western US. This will keep us in
in a relatively neutral and normal weather pattern, with highs in
the lower 90s to around 100 degrees each afternoon.
South/southeast surface winds will prevail, keeping moisture
high. We could see a few disturbances in the flow aloft as we
progress through the end of this week. This along with the
moisture advection could lead to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With the lack of major forcing and expected
sporadic nature of any activity, precipitation chances will remain
on the lower end. Any storms that develop are expected to remain
below severe thresholds, but gusty winds and lightning will be
possible.

The upper level ridging to our west will start to push east towards
our area late in the weekend and early next week. The ridging,
slight increase in 850 temperatures, and more southwesterly winds at
the surface could lead to an increase in temperatures on Monday and
Tuesday of next week. Exactly how much of an increase is still
uncertain, as models differ by almost 10 degrees in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through sunrise Thursday morning. A few very isolated showers or
storms are possible but given the low coverage, have not added
them to the terminal forecasts. Light mainly southeast winds will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  73  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
San Angelo  98  72  98  72 /  10  10  10   0
Junction    94  70  95  71 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood   95  72  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  97  73  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
Ozona       94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       94  71  95  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07