955
FXUS64 KSJT 112001
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
301 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A scattered diurnal cumulus field has developed over much of our
area this afternoon. The possibility of an isolated shower/
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out later this afternoon.
With this and collaborative considerations, decided to carry a 10
PoP for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening in seveal of our northern and northeastern counties,
mainly northeast of a Rotan to Coleman to Brownwood line. That
area has a little better destabilization occurring this afternoon.

For tonight, skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows mostly
in the 70-73 degree range. Southeast winds 7-14 mph this evening
will drop off and veer to the south overnight. On Friday, an upper
level high will be centered over Utah, and a weak inverted trough
should begin to develop from Mexico into south-central Texas. Expect
some diurnally driven showers and storms Friday afternoon in the
Edwards Plateau and Hill country south and southeast of our area,
closer to the developing inverted trough and where there is an
increase in lower to mid-level moisture. At this time we have a
slight chance PoP Friday afternoon in southern Kimble County. Some
increase in cloud cover over our southern counties is expected to
limit highs to the lower to mid 90s. Farther north in our central
and northern counties, temperatures will be about the same as today,
perhaps a degree or two lower in some locations. South or south-
southwest winds Friday morning will become southeast and increase to
10-15 mph by afternoon, with some higher gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

High pressure aloft will remain quasi-stationary over the western
states through the long term period. Models continue to show a
mid level inverted trough developing over Mexico and south Texas
on Friday, with this feature drifting northwest over southern
portions of our area on Saturday. Moisture will increase over the
area by Saturday, with precipitable water values ranging between
1.5 and 1.80 inches. Cloud cover will increase, along with
the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the southern half of the area. Temperatures will remain
hot across the Big Country on Saturday, with highs in the upper
90s, but southern sections will see cooler temperatures, with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The weakness aloft will remain to our southwest Sunday into early
next week, with the majority of any diurnal convection staying
south and west of the area. Still cannot rule out some isolated
showers/storms over the northern Edwards Plateau, so will keep
low POPs intact across this area. Could see another opportunity
for rainfall towards the end of next week, as the aforementioned
inverted trough lingers, possibly forming into a weak upper low.
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding this scenario, with the
NBM keeping POPs on the low side, despite more optimism from the
global models. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around
100 through the remainder of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Generally clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through the
next 24 hours. Winds overall will be from the south to southeast
at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  73  95 /  10   0   0  10
San Angelo  72  99  73  96 /   0   0   0  20
Junction    70  94  73  89 /  10  10  10  30
Brownwood   71  96  71  94 /  10   0   0  10
Sweetwater  73  99  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
Ozona       69  93  71  89 /  10   0  10  30
Brady       71  95  71  91 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19