600
FXUS64 KSJT 120712
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
212 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A scattered diurnal cumulus field has developed over much of our
area this afternoon. The possibility of an isolated shower/
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out later this afternoon.
With this and collaborative considerations, decided to carry a 10
PoP for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening in several of our northern and northeastern counties,
mainly northeast of a Rotan to Coleman to Brownwood line. That
area has a little better destabilization occurring this afternoon.

For tonight, skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows mostly
in the 70-73 degree range. Southeast winds 7-14 mph this evening
will drop off and veer to the south overnight. On Friday, an upper
level high will be centered over Utah, and a weak inverted trough
should begin to develop from Mexico into south-central Texas. Expect
some diurnally driven showers and storms Friday afternoon in the
Edwards Plateau and Hill country south and southeast of our area,
closer to the developing inverted trough and where there is an
increase in lower to mid-level moisture. At this time we have a
slight chance PoP Friday afternoon in southern Kimble County. Some
increase in cloud cover over our southern counties is expected to
limit highs to the lower to mid 90s. Farther north in our central
and northern counties, temperatures will be about the same as today,
perhaps a degree or two lower in some locations. South or south-
southwest winds Friday morning will become southeast and increase to
10-15 mph by afternoon, with some higher gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Upper level ridge will remain centered near Las Vegas this
weekend, with a secondary high over the gulf coast. Shear axis
will be between them across portions of Texas. Some of the latest
CAMs show at least some scattered convection developing across the
Edwards Plateau north into the Concho Valley on Saturday afternoon
and will continue to include some mention of showers and storms
for this time period.

This shear axis will persist into next week and will effectively
keep some chance for convection across much of the area. Best
chances may end up being Wednesday and Thursday when a little
more shortwave energy rounding the top of the main upper high
moves across the area and may act to provide a little better upper
level support.

As for temperatures, none of the convection looks terribly
widespread enough to drop temperatures very much with highs
mainly in the mid and upper 90s. Hottest readings will be across
the Big Country closer to the center of the main upper high, and a
little cooler across the I-10 corridor which will be both farther
away and more likely to see additional cloud cover and best rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds overnight will start to pick up from the
southeast in the afternoon. There is potential for isolated showers
and thunderstorms near KJCT and KSOA in the mid afternoon, however,
it looks like the showers should stay mainly south of our area, so
they have been left out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo  98  73  96  73 /   0   0  20  10
Junction    92  73  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
Brownwood   95  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  98  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       92  71  90  72 /   0   0  30  20
Brady       93  71  92  72 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...AP