395
FXUS64 KSJT 131751
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the
northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures. With moisture increasing throughout the column, some
upper level support, and diurnal heating, we could see a few storms
this afternoon. The best chance for rain this afternoon will be in
the I-10 corridor and south. However, CAMs are varying pretty
significantly with coverage in our area, with models having anywhere
from zero activity to activity as far north as the southern Big
Country. The main hazards with any storms that develop will be
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Precipitation
chances will die down by the evening. The HRRR does have an isolated
storm moving into our southern counties in the early morning
tomorrow. But, right now, the majority of models are keeping our
area dry tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A large upper level ridge, currently centered near/just west of the
Four Corners region is expected to remain nearly stationary over the
next several days. This ridge is expected to exert its influence
over our area enough to keep the mention of precipitation out of
the forecast through Monday, with highs in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees.

From Tuesday through the rest of the week, while the ridge is
expected to remain roughly in the same position, it is expected to
weaken slightly over our area. This will result in a gradual
increase in precipitation chances in our area, and possibly some
cooler temperatures by the second half of the week. As mentioned
previously, there is still a lot of uncertainty, so have kept rain
chances less than 50% through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through much of
the period. Isolated to widely scattered convection is possible
across the southern terminals this afternoon. Best chance is at
KJCT and will include a TEMPO thunder group this forecast cycle,
with VCSH/VCTS at KSOA and KJCT. Some stratus development is
possible again across the southern terminals towards daybreak
Sunday morning. Will include MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD and KSOA
after 10Z. South winds will gust to around 18 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  97  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
San Angelo  73  98  73 100 /  10  10   0  10
Junction    73  93  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   72  96  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater  73  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  91  72  94 /  10  10   0  10
Brady       72  94  72  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24