131
FXUS64 KSJT 192334
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Calm and quiet weather will persist through Saturday morning, when
the next chances for precipitation arise across parts of West
Central Texas. Precipitation chances will begin across the Big
Country late Saturday morning, spread southward into the Concho
Valley by the afternoon, and then encompassing parts of the
Heartland by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. These
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
remain mostly sub-severe throughout the period, with the main
impacts being localized heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning, and
some localized gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern
U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on
the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will
linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As
a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on
Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and
help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain
across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility
of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has
outlooked our area for excessive rainfall on Sunday (Marginal
Risk) and Monday (Slight Risk). The higher likelihood for flooding
will be across the I-10 corridor, which is where the highest
rainfall totals are forecast to be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with light east to
southeast winds 10 kts or less through the period. Scattered
convection is expected to develop across northwest Texas after
18Z tomorrow, with some of this activity approaching the KABI
terminal by late afternoon. For now, will add VCTS to the KABI
terminal after 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  97  73  92 /   0  20  20  50
San Angelo  73 100  73  94 /   0  20  10  60
Junction    71  96  72  94 /   0  10   0  50
Brownwood   69  96  72  91 /   0  10  10  50
Sweetwater  74  98  74  92 /   0  30  20  50
Ozona       71  96  72  92 /   0  10   0  50
Brady       70  95  72  91 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24