691
FXUS64 KSJT 160539
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Another Hot Day Expected on Tuesday...

Skies were sunny this afternoon with hot temperatures ranging
from the upper 90s to low 100s. This is due to a midlevel ridge of
high pressure located over New Mexico. The ridge, which models
show to be 595 dam, should remain more or less over New Mexico
through tomorrow evening. 850mb temperatures tomorrow should range
from 21- 24 deg C, which should translate to warm night tonight
followed by another hot day on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures
should once again range from the upper 90s across the Edwards
Plateau and northwest Hill Country to above 100 degrees for the
Concho Valley and Big Country. Although dewpoints will start off
in the 60s in the morning, the airmass should mix out to the low
to mid 50s by the afternoon so heat indices should remain below
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Cooler and wetter pattern looking more likely from late week
onward...

We`ll start to see an increase in cloud cover across the area
Wednesday as mid and upper level moisture begins to surge south
ahead of a cold front dropping into the Southern Plains. The cold
front may begin to sag into the northern Big Country Wednesday
afternoon/evening with rain chances entering the forecast for
areas north of the frontal boundary after 00Z Thursday. High
temperatures for Wednesday will be similar to days previous in the
upper 90s to around 102 degrees.

The cold front is expected to make little progress across the
area Thursday and Friday with generally isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible. The frontal boundary will provide a
weak focus for activity on Thursday but rain chances are spread
across the area as we will be on the eastern periphery of a
strengthening upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest/Four
Corners region. This may provide weak upper level impulses to help
with convective development. Rain chances continue into the
weekend but become more undefined in regards to location Sunday
through mid-next week with very weak upper level flow leading to
potentially more widespread diurnal activity. This timeframe looks
to be when the chances for rain accumulation will be best across
the area as any showers/storms that form will likely be efficient
rainfall producers as dew points surge back into the upper 60s to
70s and pWats soar into the 1.5-2 inch range with increasing deep
moisture. While it would be premature to give QPF amounts at this
time, WPC guidance has indicated that Sunday onward would be the
most likely time our area could see more widespread beneficial
accumulation, which is desperately needed across our
western/southwestern counties where they have worsening drought
conditions and extremely depleted reservoirs. At the very least,
temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs Thursday through
Saturday around normal in the mid to upper 90s. As rain chances
increase Sunday and Monday, high temperatures look to cool even
further into the mid 80s and low 90s, nicely below average for the
middle of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions through tomorrow night at all sites, with south
winds gusting to near 20 knots from mid morning through early
evening tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    103  77  99  72 /   0   0  10  20
San Angelo 103  74 102  73 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    99  72  99  73 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood  101  73  99  73 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater 103  77  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
Ozona       98  71  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Brady      100  72  98  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20