310
FXUS64 KSJT 201844
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Early this morning skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in
the mid 70s.  A somewhat humid airmass was in place, characterized
by dewpoints in the 60s.

A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling
southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of
the the weather today through tonight.  High temperatures this
afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the
low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to
develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from
yesterday evening`s thunderstorms, rotating through the upper
trough and into the Big Country this afternoon. This, along with
the instability, should help to spawn a southward-moving line of
thunderstorms around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. The main
concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rain, given PWAT
values of 1.5-2 inches, but some gusty winds are possible with
any storm that develops. Storms should die off by midnight as
instability subsides and give way to another mild night in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A more active pattern is will continue across West Central Texas,
as the upper-level trough sets up across the area and a series of
upper-level disturbances and surface cold fronts traverse the
area through the end of next week. This will bring increased rain
chances for the 1st half of next week, with some potential for
isolated showers lingering across our southern most counties on
Thursday and Friday next week. The main impacts will be localized
moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for localized
flooding, dangerous lightning, and localized gusty winds around
thunderstorms and weak cold fronts passing through the area.
Increased cloud cover across the area will likely keep afternoon
high temperatures down, particularly Monday and Tuesday, where
highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s to lower 90s. High
temperatures will warm back into the 90s across the Big Country
and Concho Valley the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions with southerly winds through tonight. Chances for
storms will increase near Abilene and Sweetwater by mid afternoon
then around San Angelo and Brady by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  92  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
San Angelo  74  93  70  85 /  20  60  50  90
Junction    73  94  70  89 /  10  50  20  80
Brownwood   72  92  70  85 /  20  40  40  70
Sweetwater  72  93  70  82 /  30  50  50  70
Ozona       72  91  70  84 /  10  50  40  80
Brady       72  92  70  85 /  10  40  30  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK