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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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205 FXUS64 KSJT 162300 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Upper level ridging is currently keeping our area dry and largely cloud free. Through the overnight hours, the ridge is expected to rotate, becoming more longitudinal in nature, and drift west. As this happens, a cold front, currently moving south through Central Oklahoma and the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle, will begin to approach our area. We`ll see an increase in high clouds ahead of the front tonight, mainly for areas north of the I-10 corridor. Overnight lows will remain comparable to the past few nights, generally in the mid 70s with continued southerly winds keeping lower level moisture well in place. The front looks to make it to our northern counties during the late overnight/early morning hours, bringing more robust cloud cover with it. Through the morning hours, current forecasts show the front making little progress south through the Big Country. Diabatic and compressional heating ahead of the front will create a weakly capped to virtually uncapped environment by the afternoon hours with the frontal boundary potentially providing a focus for convective development. Frontal location will play a significant role in where storms initiate with the current best guess around the I-20 corridor. However, hi-res models are notoriously too slow with cold fronts so forecasts may need to be updated to account for a potentially faster moving front in the next package. There are also significant differences between the hi-res models on how much activity actually develops so have capped PoPs at slight chance for now. Even with the frontal boundary across northern portions of the area, high temperatures areawide will remain in the upper 90s to around 103 in the Concho Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms possible beginning Wednesday night and continuing through at least the middle of next week, as upper level ridging is replaced by an upper trough. A weak cold front moving into the region Wednesday night will also bring some low level lift to the region. There is the potential to some locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, particularly beginning Saturday as precipital water values increase from 1 to 1.5 inches to 1.5 to 2 inches...which would be beneficial to much of the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions expected through tomorrow afternoon with winds diminishing overnight. Approaching frontal boundary may bring a few thunderstorms after 18Z, but specific times and locations were left out due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 99 73 92 / 0 20 20 40 San Angelo 75 103 74 96 / 0 20 10 50 Junction 73 99 73 95 / 0 10 10 50 Brownwood 74 98 73 93 / 0 20 10 40 Sweetwater 76 100 73 94 / 0 20 20 40 Ozona 72 97 72 94 / 0 10 10 40 Brady 73 98 73 92 / 0 20 10 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...SK