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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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782 FXUS64 KSJT 171856 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms was over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. this complex has sent an outflow boundary south to near the Red River. This outflow boundary/composite cold front will continue south into our area today and will be the main focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 this afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather is very low, but the storms will produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going with low chance Pops across the northern 2/3 of the area. For tonight, especially after midnight, another weak upper level disturbance may bring isolated to widely scattered storms to the northern half of the area. Another hot day with highs in the mid 90s to around 102. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The upper level ridge currently over the Four Corners region will continue to expand across the Western CONUS during the day on Friday. This will create a weak upper level troughing regime over the Midwest/Central Plains. With the frontal boundary south of our area on Friday (meaning little to no low level convergence), conditions should remain mostly dry. Temperatures will still be able to climb into low to mid 90s (upper 90s possible in the Concho Valley) which may erode any capping and allow for some diurnal activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. These storms would be weak overall as instability will be very limited across the area due to the relatively dry low/mid-levels. By Saturday, the aforementioned upper level troughing will begin to expand south/southwestward into the Southern Plains. A frontal boundary to our north is expected to provide a focus for convection as it continues to move south towards our area Saturday evening into early Sunday. Rain chances increase significantly by Sunday as we see the return of more deep level moisture with model soundings showing PWat values climbing over 1.5 inches across the area. With the weak upper trough holding across in the area and the front expected to stall out in our general vicinity, chances for showers and storms remain decently high through Wednesday (peaking around 50- 70% areawide). Due to the nebulous forcing across the area, how widespread all of this activity remains difficult to say. The moisture will certainly be available but changes in the troughing pattern and/or placement in the frontal/outflow boundary may create significant differences in who sees high totals and who "misses out". Have had to broadbrush QPF amounts but confidence is low that all areas will see totals that high (generally 1-2 inches) with the higher totals expected across our southern/southeastern counties. At the very least, cooler temperatures will prevail with highs during this timeframe below average in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This wetter and cooler pattern looks to hold through the end of the work week with our more typical summer pattern potentially making its comeback by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Satellite and radar images as well as surface observations indicate the outflow boundary from the convection that moved across portions of the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma last night into early this morning has reached the northern portions of the CWA early this afternoon. Mostly mid to high level clouds were associated with this boundary. This outflow boundary will be a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of the CWA later today into tonight. Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon into the evening with brief MVFR conditions with thunderstorms in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 San Angelo 73 96 70 98 / 40 40 10 20 Junction 73 94 71 96 / 20 50 10 30 Brownwood 72 93 68 93 / 30 20 10 10 Sweetwater 73 94 69 96 / 30 20 10 10 Ozona 72 93 70 96 / 20 40 10 20 Brady 73 93 69 93 / 30 40 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...61