508
FXUS64 KSJT 180507
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Convection continues to develop along the outflow boundary draped
across northeast and north central Texas this afternoon. Satellite
and radar images indicate some showers starting to develop along
the outflow boundary draped across the southern portions of the
Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and
Heartland. NBM POPs for tonight and Thursday appear to be a little
low so have adjusted them slightly higher based on the latest HRRR
progging convection developing along the outflow boundary this
afternoon and the latest NAM and GFS models progging convection
developing overnight into Thurs morning as the outflow boundary
moves further south. Rain chances will shift southward Thursday
with convection likely across portions of the northern Edwards
Plateau and the northwest Hill Country. SPC does have a marginal
risk of severe weather across portions of the CWA today and
tonight...mainly where the outflow boundary is currently at but
the main threat is for damaging winds (likely microbursts) due to
the hot temperatures across the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures
will be near normal across most of west central Texas Thurs
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The upper level ridge currently over the Four Corners region will
continue to expand across the Western CONUS during the day on
Friday. This will create a weak upper level troughing regime over
the Midwest/Central Plains. With the frontal boundary south of our
area on Friday (meaning little to no low level convergence),
conditions should remain mostly dry. Temperatures will still be able
to climb into low to mid 90s (upper 90s possible in the Concho
Valley) which may erode any capping and allow for some diurnal
activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. These storms
would be weak overall as instability will be very limited across the
area due to the relatively dry low/mid-levels.

By Saturday, the aforementioned upper level troughing will begin to
expand south/southwestward into the Southern Plains. A frontal
boundary to our north is expected to provide a focus for convection
as it continues to move south towards our area Saturday evening into
early Sunday. Rain chances increase significantly by Sunday as we
see the return of more deep level moisture with model soundings
showing PWat values climbing over 1.5 inches across the area. With
the weak upper trough holding across in the area and the front
expected to stall out in our general vicinity, chances for showers
and storms remain decently high through Wednesday (peaking around 50-
70% areawide). Due to the nebulous forcing across the area, how
widespread all of this activity remains difficult to say. The
moisture will certainly be available but changes in the troughing
pattern and/or placement in the frontal/outflow boundary may create
significant differences in who sees high totals and who "misses
out". Have had to broadbrush QPF amounts but confidence is low that
all areas will see totals that high (generally 1-2 inches) with the
higher totals expected across our southern/southeastern counties. At
the very least, cooler temperatures will prevail with highs during
this timeframe below average in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This
wetter and cooler pattern looks to hold through the end of the work
week with our more typical summer pattern potentially making its
comeback by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A cold front was located along the I-10 corridor. Most of the Hi-
Res models are indicating isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms developing along and behind the front during the
Thursday morning hours. Going with VCTS at most of the terminals
for a few hours. Going with a dry forecast at the terminals
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  94  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
San Angelo  70  97  71  99 /  10   0   0  20
Junction    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0  20
Brownwood   68  93  68  95 /  10   0   0  10
Sweetwater  69  95  73  97 /  10   0   0  20
Ozona       70  95  70  95 /  10  10   0  20
Brady       69  93  69  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...21