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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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225 FXUS64 KSJT 181129 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Early this morning, quiet weather across our area, but that will probably change by sunrise. As of 230 AM, one boundary was stalled near the I-10 corridor, with another moving south through the area, with showers developing east of San Angelo. Most of the Hi-Res models continue this activity with scattered thunderstorms developing in the next few hours and lasting through the early afternoon. Most of the this activity will be located along and south of an Mertzon to San Angelo to San Sable line. Again, the severe weather threat is very low, but the storms will produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going with a dry forecast from late this afternoon through tonight as conditions will unfavorable for convective development. A little cooler today, with highs in the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The long term continues to look cooler as well as fairly active as far as showers and thunderstorms are concerned, especially from Sunday into the middle of next week. On Friday, the boundaries affecting the area today should be south of the area, with little activity expected, and highs in the mid to upper 90s. Saturday will continue to be hot, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. However, as an upper level low moves south/southeast into the central plains, trailing shortwave energy in the southern plains may help to spawn some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our western counties. On Sunday, the troughing over the central plains and Great Lakes area is still expected to expand south/southwest into the southern plains. At the same time, a cold front should drift south into west central Texas. The troughing will linger over area area through most of next week. The combination of the front, the upper troughing, and plentiful moisture (precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range) will result in a good chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Although severe weather can`t be ruled out, the main concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning. In addition to the rain chances, cooler temperatures can also be expected due to the upper level trough, additional cloud cover, and potentially rain-cooled air. Rain chances should gradually diminish during the second half of the week as the trough weakens and pushes slowly eastward. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Most of the Hi-Res models are indicating scattered thunderstorms developing along and behind the a cold front during the morning hours. Going with VCTS at most of the terminals for a few hours. Going with a dry forecast at the terminals this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 94 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 96 71 97 71 / 30 0 0 0 Junction 94 71 94 70 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 94 69 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 95 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 91 71 95 70 / 40 10 10 0 Brady 93 70 93 69 / 30 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...21