780
FXUS64 KSJT 201916
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
216 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Western Central Texas will be wedged between a high pressure off
to the west and a trough across the eastern Plains. A few embedded
disturbances will cause scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
across the region today. As of 2 PM CDT, we already have observed
some rain showers developing west of Abilene along and north of
I-20. Expect this activity to continue across the region into this
evening. As a series of disturbances and boundaries continue to
move across the area, expect the coverage to increase overnight
tonight into Sunday afternoon. Higher rainfall totals will start
to arrive more towards Sunday afternoon as the boundary stalls
across the area. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked
Sunday in a Marginal Risk (5% chance) for excessive rainfall that
leads to flash flooding. This will be the main risk for this
portion of the forecast. Rainfall totals near 1" are possible
across the I-10 corridor through Sunday afternoon. Additional
rainfall is possible during the long term portions of the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A more active pattern is will continue across West Central Texas,
as the upper-level trough sets up across the area and a series of
upper-level disturbances and surface cold fronts traverse the
area through the end of next week. This will bring increased rain
chances for the 1st half of next week, with some potential for
isolated showers lingering across our southern most counties on
Thursday and Friday next week. The main impacts will be localized
moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for localized
flooding, dangerous lightning, and localized gusty winds around
thunderstorms and weak cold fronts passing through the area.
Increased cloud cover across the area will likely keep afternoon
high temperatures down, particularly Monday and Tuesday, where
highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s to lower 90s. High
temperatures will warm back into the 90s across the Big Country
and Concho Valley the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place throughout the TAF period.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Concho valley
this afternoon and evening. The coverage will subsequently
increase overnight and into Sunday morning affecting areas further
south near the weak frontal boundary. Erratic winds in the
vicinity of this activity are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  91  70 /  30  40  50  40
San Angelo  99  73  94  70 /  10  20  70  50
Junction    97  73  94  70 /   0   0  70  20
Brownwood   96  72  91  70 /  10  20  50  40
Sweetwater  99  72  94  70 /  30  30  50  50
Ozona       96  73  91  70 /  10  10  60  40
Brady       95  73  91  70 /   0  10  60  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41