113
FXUS64 KSJT 171044
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
544 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms was over northern
Oklahoma and southern Kansas. this complex has sent an outflow
boundary south to near the Red River. This outflow
boundary/composite cold front will continue south into our area
today and will be the main focus for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 this afternoon and
evening. The threat for severe weather is very low, but the storms
will produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Going with low chance Pops across the northern 2/3 of
the area. For tonight, especially after midnight, another weak
upper level disturbance may bring isolated to widely scattered
storms to the northern half of the area. Another hot day with
highs in the mid 90s to around 102.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

From Thursday into this weekend, the upper level ridge currently
centered roughly over the Four Corners area will gradually shift
to the northwest while broad troughing develops from the Great
Lakes area south/southwest into the southern plains. Temperatures
are expected to continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal through Saturday with highs in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees. However, there will be a chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night as convection may
develop off of surface boundaries laid down by convection from
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect generally dry weather on
Friday with hot temperatures.

By Saturday afternoon/evening, upper level troughing is expected
to begin spreading south/southwestward into the southern plains.
Convection will develop off of a frontal boundary to the north of
the area and move south toward west central Texas, potentially
pushing a hybrid outflow/frontal boundary into our area by
Saturday night or Sunday morning. The upper level trough is
expected to remain over the area through Tuesday. With the trough
and boundary near the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day through early next week, although our
best chances for widespread coverage will be Sunday into Monday.
With rich moisture available for these storms, the main concerns
will be locally heavy rainfall along with dangerous lightning. The
trough combined with rain chances should also result in cooler
temperatures, keeping highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most
areas Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The Hi-Res models are
indicating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly south
of I-20 during the late afternoon and evening hours Wednesday.
Conditions will be more favorable for convection due to better
instability and a wind shift/cool front moving through. Have added
thunder for a few hours at the KSJT/KBBD terminals and low
confidence for the other terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  73  93  71 /  20  30  50  10
San Angelo 102  75  96  71 /  20  20  60  20
Junction    99  74  95  71 /  10  10  60  20
Brownwood   99  73  93  69 /  30  30  50  10
Sweetwater  99  73  94  71 /  20  30  40  10
Ozona       96  73  93  71 /  10  10  50  20
Brady       98  73  93  70 /  20  10  60  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21