174
FXUS64 KSJT 111948
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
248 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Can not absolutely rule out a stray shower or storm this afternoon
and evening somewhere across the area, but chances look even
smaller than it did yesterday and coverage was very limited on
Wednesday. Will leave the forecast dry for now and update later
should convection actually develop. Otherwise, temperatures will
remain pretty close to where they ended up on Wednesday and will
stay pretty close to persistence for today forecast highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

High pressure aloft will remain quasi-stationary over the western
states through the long term period. Models continue to show a
mid level inverted trough developing over Mexico and south Texas
on Friday, with this feature drifting northwest over southern
portions of our area on Saturday. Moisture will increase over the
area by Saturday, with precipitable water values ranging between
1.5 and 1.80 inches. Cloud cover will increase, along with
the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the southern half of the area. Temperatures will remain
hot across the Big Country on Saturday, with highs in the upper
90s, but southern sections will see cooler temperatures, with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The weakness aloft will remain to our southwest Sunday into early
next week, with the majority of any diurnal convection staying
south and west of the area. Still cannot rule out some isolated
showers/storms over the northern Edwards Plateau, so will keep
low POPs intact across this area. Could see another opportunity
for rainfall towards the end of next week, as the aforementioned
inverted trough lingers, possibly forming into a weak upper low.
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding this scenario, with the
NBM keeping POPs on the low side, despite more optimism from the
global models. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around
100 through the remainder of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Generally clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through the
next 24 hours. Winds overall will be from the south to southeast
at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  73  95 /  10   0   0  10
San Angelo  72  99  73  96 /   0   0   0  20
Junction    70  94  73  89 /  10  10  10  30
Brownwood   71  96  71  94 /  10   0   0  10
Sweetwater  73  99  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
Ozona       69  93  71  89 /  10   0  10  30
Brady       71  95  71  91 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07