Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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955 FXUS64 KSJT 112001 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A scattered diurnal cumulus field has developed over much of our area this afternoon. The possibility of an isolated shower/ thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out later this afternoon. With this and collaborative considerations, decided to carry a 10 PoP for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in seveal of our northern and northeastern counties, mainly northeast of a Rotan to Coleman to Brownwood line. That area has a little better destabilization occurring this afternoon. For tonight, skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows mostly in the 70-73 degree range. Southeast winds 7-14 mph this evening will drop off and veer to the south overnight. On Friday, an upper level high will be centered over Utah, and a weak inverted trough should begin to develop from Mexico into south-central Texas. Expect some diurnally driven showers and storms Friday afternoon in the Edwards Plateau and Hill country south and southeast of our area, closer to the developing inverted trough and where there is an increase in lower to mid-level moisture. At this time we have a slight chance PoP Friday afternoon in southern Kimble County. Some increase in cloud cover over our southern counties is expected to limit highs to the lower to mid 90s. Farther north in our central and northern counties, temperatures will be about the same as today, perhaps a degree or two lower in some locations. South or south- southwest winds Friday morning will become southeast and increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon, with some higher gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 High pressure aloft will remain quasi-stationary over the western states through the long term period. Models continue to show a mid level inverted trough developing over Mexico and south Texas on Friday, with this feature drifting northwest over southern portions of our area on Saturday. Moisture will increase over the area by Saturday, with precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and 1.80 inches. Cloud cover will increase, along with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the area. Temperatures will remain hot across the Big Country on Saturday, with highs in the upper 90s, but southern sections will see cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The weakness aloft will remain to our southwest Sunday into early next week, with the majority of any diurnal convection staying south and west of the area. Still cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms over the northern Edwards Plateau, so will keep low POPs intact across this area. Could see another opportunity for rainfall towards the end of next week, as the aforementioned inverted trough lingers, possibly forming into a weak upper low. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding this scenario, with the NBM keeping POPs on the low side, despite more optimism from the global models. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around 100 through the remainder of the extended period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Generally clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds overall will be from the south to southeast at 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 98 73 95 / 10 0 0 10 San Angelo 72 99 73 96 / 0 0 0 20 Junction 70 94 73 89 / 10 10 10 30 Brownwood 71 96 71 94 / 10 0 0 10 Sweetwater 73 99 73 96 / 10 0 0 10 Ozona 69 93 71 89 / 10 0 10 30 Brady 71 95 71 91 / 0 10 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19