075
FXUS64 KSJT 130926
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
426 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the
northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures. With moisture increasing throughout the column, some
upper level support, and diurnal heating, we could see a few storms
this afternoon. The best chance for rain this afternoon will be in
the I-10 corridor and south. However, CAMs are varying pretty
significantly with coverage in our area, with models having anywhere
from zero activity to activity as far north as the southern Big
Country. The main hazards with any storms that develop will be
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Precipitation
chances will die down by the evening. The HRRR does have an isolated
storm moving into our southern counties in the early morning
tomorrow. But, right now, the majority of models are keeping our
area dry tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A large upper level ridge, currently centered near/just west of the
Four Corners region is expected to remain nearly stationary over the
next several days. This ridge is expected to exert its influence
over our area enough to keep the mention of precipitation out of
the forecast through Monday, with highs in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees.

From Tuesday through the rest of the week, while the ridge is
expected to remain roughly in the same position, it is expected to
weaken slightly over our area. This will result in a gradual
increase in precipitation chances in our area, and possibly some
cooler temperatures by the second half of the week. As mentioned
previously, there is still a lot of uncertainty, so have kept rain
chances less than 50% through late next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  73  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo  95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    90  73  93  73 /  30  10  10   0
Brownwood   92  72  96  73 /  20   0  10   0
Sweetwater  96  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       89  71  91  72 /  30  10  10   0
Brady       90  72  94  72 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...AP