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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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213 FXUS64 KSJT 080603 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 103 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday morning, and then move north and weaken to a tropical storm by 7 PM Monday. With this setup, our area will be under generally north to northwest flow aloft tonight and Monday. This evening, an embedded disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is forecast to move into northwest Texas, and help to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should move or develop south/southeast into the Big Country later this evening into tonight. Not seeing much of an indication for the showers and storms to persist overnight however, with the aforementioned disturbance weakening. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Our area will have increased cloud cover overnight and Monday morning, but skies should become partly cloudy especially over our western counties in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday in our northern and central counties, but confidence is limited in occurrence and placement. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The forecast continues to call for increased shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday, as a surface cold front coinciding with a upper-level shortwave trough tracks through West Central Texas. Models are keying in on these storms possibly organizing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The high-res models are showing this feature developing during the overnight hours Monday night into early Tuesday morning, south of a Sterling City to Brady line, and tracking south to southwestward through Tuesday evening. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its moisture will stay to our east as it lifts north across east Texas and the Arklatex region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects from it. The NBM has continued to trend precipitation chances down Wednesday into Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing across southern sections during the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend. Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Tuesday behind the front and with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures are then expected to trend back upward into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Scattered showers will continue impacting KABI the next couple of hours before dissipating. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are possible near daybreak. These ceilings should lift to VFR by the afternoon. Finally, a cold front will move through in the morning switching winds out of the east-northeast at 10-15 knots. A few showers and storms may accompany the front but confidence is too low to include a mention in this TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 70 91 68 / 30 10 10 0 San Angelo 92 71 95 71 / 20 30 20 10 Junction 92 71 93 71 / 10 30 30 10 Brownwood 88 69 92 68 / 30 10 10 0 Sweetwater 85 69 92 69 / 30 20 10 0 Ozona 95 70 92 70 / 10 30 30 10 Brady 90 70 91 70 / 20 20 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...42