367
FXUS64 KSJT 151905
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
205 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Another Hot Day Expected on Tuesday...

Skies were sunny this afternoon with hot temperatures ranging from
the upper 90s to low 100s. This is due to a midlevel ridge of
high pressure located over New Mexico. The ridge, which models
show to be 595 dam, should remain more or less over New Mexico
through tomorrow evening. 850mb temperatures tomorrow should range
from 21- 24 deg C, which should translate to warm night tonight
followed by another hot day on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures
should once again range from the upper 90s across the Edwards
Plateau and northwest Hill Country to above 100 degrees for the
Concho Valley and Big Country. Although dewpoints will start off
in the 60s in the morning, the airmass should mix out to the low
to mid 50s by the afternoon so heat indices should remain below
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Cooler and wetter pattern looking more likely from late week
onward...

We`ll start to see an increase in cloud cover across the area
Wednesday as mid and upper level moisture begins to surge south
ahead of a cold front dropping into the Southern Plains. The cold
front may begin to sag into the northern Big Country Wednesday
afternoon/evening with rain chances entering the forecast for areas
north of the frontal boundary after 00Z Thursday. High temperatures
for Wednesday will be similar to days previous in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees.

The cold front is expected to make little progress across the area
Thursday and Friday with generally isolated to scattered showers and
storms possible. The frontal boundary will provide a weak focus for
activity on Thursday but rain chances are spread across the area as
we will be on the eastern periphery of a strengthening upper level
ridge across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region. This may
provide weak upper level impulses to help with convective
development. Rain chances continue into the weekend but become more
undefined in regards to location Sunday through mid-next week with
very weak upper level flow leading to potentially more widespread
diurnal activity. This timeframe looks to be when the chances for
rain accumulation will be best across the area as any showers/storms
that form will likely be efficient rainfall producers as dew points
surge back into the upper 60s to 70s and pWats soar into the 1.5-2
inch range with increasing deep moisture. While it would be
premature to give QPF amounts at this time, WPC guidance has
indicated that Sunday onward would be the most likely time our area
could see more widespread beneficial accumulation, which is
desperately needed across our western/southwestern counties where
they have worsening drought conditions and extremely depleted
reservoirs. At the very least, temperatures will be a bit cooler
with highs Thursday through Saturday around normal in the mid to
upper 90s. As rain chances increase Sunday and Monday, high
temperatures look to cool even further into the mid 80s and low 90s,
nicely below average for the middle of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Breezy south winds should continue this afternoon with gusts over
20KT at times, before decreasing below 10KT this evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76 103  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  74 103  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    71  99  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   73 101  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  76 103  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       71  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72 100  72  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SK