Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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956 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPSIO LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :FLOYD R AT SHELDON IA 1N SHLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 12 10 | <5 10 7 | <5 <5 <5 :FLOYD R AT ALTON IA ALTI4 12.0 16.0 18.0 | <5 12 9 | <5 9 6 | <5 7 <5 :FLOYD R AT LE MARS IA NO.2 LMRI4 20.0 21.0 24.0 | <5 14 7 | <5 11 5 | <5 <5 <5 :W BR FLOYD R AT STRUBLE IA 2N STUI4 14.0 15.0 16.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :FLOYD R AT MERRILL IA MRLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 6 <5 | <5 5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :FLOYD R AT JAMES IA 1NE JMEI4 26.0 30.0 34.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT MILFORD IA 3W MIFI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 | 19 28 38 | 9 23 24 | 7 12 9 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT SPENCER IA NO.2 SPWI4 10.0 14.0 16.0 | 33 33 30 | 6 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :OCHEYEDAN R AT SPENCER IA 3SW SPOI4 8.0 9.5 10.5 | 9 17 7 | <5 6 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT LINN GROVE IA LNNI4 18.0 19.5 21.0 | 7 9 10 | 5 6 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT CHEROKEE IA NO.2 CHKI4 17.0 21.0 24.0 | 11 10 18 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT CORRECTIONVILLE IA CRRI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :MAPLE R AT MAPLETON IA 1SW MAPI4 21.0 22.0 23.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE SIOUX R AT TURIN IA 4S TURI4 25.0 28.0 34.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :WEST FORK DITCH AT HORNICK IA 1E HOKI4 20.0 22.0 26.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :PERRY CR AT SIOUX CITY IA 4N SIOI4 24.0 26.0 28.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD 8NW WTRS2 10.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD WBSS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 | 14 6 18 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD BRDWAY WBWS2 10.5 11.0 13.5 | 12 18 21 | 10 15 12 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT CASTLEWOOD SD 1NW CSWS2 9.0 11.0 16.0 | 27 37 19 | 5 11 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT BROOKINGS SD 10SE BRKS2 9.0 10.5 12.0 | 13 26 14 | <5 12 11 | <5 <5 5 :BIG SIOUX R AT DELL RAPIDS SD 2SW DERS2 12.0 14.0 15.0 | 9 13 10 | <5 8 7 | <5 7 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD SFLS2 12.0 15.0 17.0 | 9 14 10 | <5 8 <5 | <5 5 <5 :SKUNK CR AT SIOUX FALLS SD 4SW SIFS2 11.5 15.0 17.0 | <5 8 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD NO CL SXFS2 16.0 18.0 31.0 | 5 9 9 | <5 8 8 | <5 <5 <5 :SPLIT ROCK CR AT CORSON SD 1E COSS2 8.5 11.0 14.0 | 16 14 9 | 10 11 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :ROCK R AT LUVERNE MN LUVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 | 8 14 9 | 7 10 6 | <5 6 <5 :ROCK R AT ROCK RAPIDS IA RAPI4 13.0 16.0 19.0 | 12 18 12 | 8 13 8 | 7 9 5 :ROCK R AT ROCK VALLEY IA RKVI4 16.0 17.0 19.0 | 7 15 7 | 5 11 5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIG SIOUX R AT HAWARDEN IA 4N HWDI4 20.5 24.0 27.0 | 24 28 18 | 17 22 11 | 10 14 8 :BIG SIOUX R AT AKRON IA AKRI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 | 27 28 18 | 21 23 12 | 12 19 10 :BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX CITY IA HWY 77 SXCI4 32.0 38.0 41.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :FLOYD R SHLI4 6.7/ 6.8/ 7.0/ 8.6/ 8.2/ 10.5/ 11.7/ ALTI4 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.5/ 8.3/ 8.0/ 9.0/ 9.2/ LMRI4 11.2/ 11.5/ 11.7/ 15.7/ 15.2/ 17.1/ 18.0/ :W BR FLOYD R STUI4 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 8.1/ 7.4/ 9.3/ 13.1/ :FLOYD R MRLI4 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.5/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 5.8/ 7.6/ JMEI4 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.6/ 12.3/ 12.1/ 13.6/ 15.5/ :LITTLE SIOUX R MIFI4 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.8/ 11.9/ 11.5/ 13.5/ 23.4/ SPWI4 8.5/ 8.6/ 8.7/ 10.8/ 10.6/ 11.7/ 14.5/ :OCHEYEDAN R SPOI4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 7.2/ 6.6/ 7.9/ 8.5/ :LITTLE SIOUX R LNNI4 9.8/ 9.8/ 10.0/ 15.2/ 13.3/ 16.5/ 19.3/ CHKI4 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 15.9/ 15.6/ 17.6/ 19.1/ CRRI4 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.0/ 11.7/ 11.7/ 12.3/ 13.8/ :MAPLE R MAPI4 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 8.0/ 7.7/ 9.2/ 9.9/ :LITTLE SIOUX R TURI4 10.4/ 10.5/ 11.3/ 14.3/ 14.2/ 15.0/ 16.2/ :WEST FORK DITCH HOKI4 7.6/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 10.1/ 9.9/ 12.5/ 13.3/ :PERRY CR SIOI4 7.4/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 8.1/ 8.7/ 9.6/ :BIG SIOUX R WTRS2 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 7.7/ 7.5/ 8.9/ 9.2/ WBSS2 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 9.3/ 9.6/ WBWS2 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 9.8/ 9.2/ 11.0/ 11.4/ CSWS2 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 9.4/ 9.2/ 10.0/ 11.0/ BRKS2 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 8.1/ 7.4/ 9.2/ 10.2/ DERS2 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 9.3/ 8.9/ 11.6/ 13.7/ SFLS2 7.8/ 7.8/ 8.0/ 10.5/ 10.2/ 11.7/ 13.4/ :SKUNK CR SIFS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 7.1/ 6.7/ 8.9/ 11.2/ :BIG SIOUX R SXFS2 8.2/ 8.4/ 8.7/ 10.7/ 10.5/ 13.2/ 16.0/ :SPLIT ROCK CR COSS2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 7.9/ 6.3/ 11.2/ 12.9/ :ROCK R LUVM5 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 7.9/ 7.4/ 8.3/ 12.9/ RAPI4 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.8/ 12.0/ 11.4/ 13.8/ 19.9/ RKVI4 6.4/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 11.4/ 10.7/ 13.5/ 17.1/ :BIG SIOUX R HWDI4 15.2/ 15.3/ 15.8/ 21.6/ 20.2/ 26.8/ 29.0/ AKRI4 10.1/ 10.2/ 10.8/ 18.7/ 16.4/ 20.2/ 21.5/ SXCI4 14.1/ 14.2/ 14.7/ 20.6/ 19.6/ 24.4/ 27.0/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :FLOYD R SHLI4 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ ALTI4 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ LMRI4 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ :W BR FLOYD R STUI4 4.2/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ :FLOYD R MRLI4 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ JMEI4 9.0/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.8/ :LITTLE SIOUX R MIFI4 8.0/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 6.9/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.8/ SPWI4 7.4/ 7.3/ 7.1/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.5/ :OCHEYEDAN R SPOI4 3.1/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ :LITTLE SIOUX R LNNI4 8.7/ 8.4/ 8.1/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.5/ CHKI4 9.4/ 9.2/ 9.0/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.6/ 8.6/ CRRI4 7.4/ 7.3/ 7.1/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.8/ :MAPLE R MAPI4 5.1/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ :LITTLE SIOUX R TURI4 10.0/ 9.9/ 9.7/ 9.5/ 9.5/ 9.4/ 9.4/ :WEST FORK DITCH HOKI4 6.7/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.1/ :PERRY CR SIOI4 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9/ :BIG SIOUX R WTRS2 4.3/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ WBSS2 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ WBWS2 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ CSWS2 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ BRKS2 3.1/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ DERS2 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ SFLS2 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.4/ :SKUNK CR SIFS2 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ :BIG SIOUX R SXFS2 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/ :SPLIT ROCK CR COSS2 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ :ROCK R LUVM5 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ RAPI4 8.0/ 7.7/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ RKVI4 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.6/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ :BIG SIOUX R HWDI4 13.4/ 13.1/ 12.7/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.0/ 11.9/ AKRI4 6.5/ 6.0/ 5.3/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6/ SXCI4 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ .END $$