879
FXUS64 KSHV 151142
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
642 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Guess what...38 days...1 month, 7 days...5 weeks, 3 days...however
you want to say it, that is how much time separates us from the
fall equinox, otherwise known as the date that marks the end of
summer and the beginning of fall. Does this mean this it will no
longer be hotter than a jalapeno`s temper? I can`t promise that
based on this ridge, but historically speaking, "normal" high
temperatures are typically in the mid to upper 80s by then so I
say bring it on. The only bad news is, in 38 days I will be back
on these overnight shifts, although hopefully there will be
something interesting to write about by then.

Alright, enough chit-chat, let`s get back to the forecast...It`s
going to be hot. That`s it, that`s the discussion. Afternoon
temperatures will climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees
with heat index values above 105 degrees this afternoon. Heat
index values across our far eastern zones of north central
Louisiana will reach 110 degrees or greater though this afternoon
and for this reason, I have elected to issue an Excessive Heat
Warning from Union Parish south to Grant and La Salle Parishes
through 8 pm this evening. An inherited Heat Advisory remains in
effect for the remainder of the area.

As with the past few days, there remains a non-zero chance for
some afternoon convection with today`s best chances coming for
areas across central Louisiana. Otherwise, dry conditions remain
in place. The heat dial will remain cranked up to the max for
Friday, with afternoon highs ranging once again from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees and heat index values in excess of 105
across the region. There also remains a non-zero chance for some
afternoon convection across our southeast zones by Friday
afternoon. If you are lucky enough to see moisture then fortune
has been kind to you. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Let`s just get this out of the way, Saturday and Sunday are going
to remain hotter than a barbecue on the sun. So I must admit, I
might have been so fixated on the current heat wave that I might
have overlooked next week`s pattern - or maybe things have shifted
in the last 24 hours. Either way, here`s the silver lining in a
rough week to talk about the weather: a trough will start digging
southward through the central CONUS from Sunday evening into
Monday morning, bringing with it a weak cool front and potentially
some much-needed moisture, at least according to one model. As for
our relentless death ridge, it will begin to shift back west where
it belongs. While it will still be hot, I think it will be more
like a spicy pepper than a fire-breathing dragon for areas that
might be behind the frontal boundary. Some areas might still reach
the upper 90s across our western zones, but all this depends on
how far the ridge can retrograde west. Highs will still be in the
90s for most of the region, but hopefully not flirting with the
100s. In addition, heat index values should ease some for areas
behind the frontal boundary. There you have it, something to look
forward to...kind of. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR flight conditions should continue to prevail at all TAF sites.
A daytime cu field should result in scattered clouds between 4000
and 7000 feet during the day, but these clouds should dissipate
near sunset. In addition, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon, mainly over North Central
Louisiana. However, overall rain chances remain very low at the
TAF sites.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80 101  80 /   0   0  10   0
MLU 100  78 100  79 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
TXK 100  79 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
ELD  99  76  99  76 /  10   0  10   0
TYR  99  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>004-010>012-
     017-018.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ005-
     006-013-014-019>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09