163
FXUS64 KSHV 132329
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As expected, an uptick in convection today across our southwest
third as this is an embedded area of higher pwat that had been
locked closer to the coast the last several days. This moisture
source is coinciding with a 500mb shear axis that extends across
SE TX into N LA and SC AR with this feature expected to remain
stalled across our region through at least Sunday. Current pops in
the high chance variety extend across the southern half of our
region but this convection will likely dissipate the later in the
evening we go. Have therefore held onto small pops mainly near
and south of the I-30 Corridor for the mid to late evening hours
before removing pops from the forecast for the remainder of the
night. Mid to high level cloud cover in association with the shear
axis will again help to hold overnight low temperatures up so
have sided with the warmer MOS guidance concerning overnight low
temperatures.

Sunday appears to be a carbon copy of today, except perhaps pop
weighted a little heavier to our southeast and east compared to
today. Cloud cover should help to hold temperatures down again,
not to mention rain chances and as a result, should not have to
worry about any possible heat headlines as Heat Indices should
remain below heat Advisory Criteria of 105 degrees. Like tonight,
held onto slight chance pops across all but our far northern zones
to account for any remaining early evening convection before
dissipating later Sunday Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As we transition into the the early and middle part of the work
week, while there will still be some semblance of the upper level
shear axis in place across our region. It will be in a much
weaker state as the center of this feature will have moved north
and east into the Lower/Middle Miss/Tenn Valleys. Therefore the
best forcing will have shifted north and east of our region and
that will coincide with the best available moisture as higher
pwats will have shifted north and east as well. For Monday, held
onto slight chance pops across our east half but removed pops for
Tue into the first half of Wed given that pwats are reduced to
below 1.5 inches. As we lose the moisture, then we will have lost
the cloud cover which means temperatures should soar back into the
middle and upper 90s. Typically with drier low and mid levels,
this should allow for a mixing down of afternoon dewpoints which
may keep us from exceeding Heat Advisory criteria but could easily
see at least a portion of our region needing a Heat Advisory by
Monday, maybe more widespread by Tue into Wed before rain chances
return in earnest Thu into Fri.

Speaking of those rain chances, the setup is the arrival of an
upstream longwave trough, virtually unheard of for the middle of
July. This system will dive south and east, into the Southern
Plains on Wed and into the heart of our region Thu into Fri. This
system will likely drag a frontal boundary south and east with it,
only helping to focus showers and thunderstorms along with it. NBM
pops continue to creep up for these two days next week so given
the run to run consistency, kept high chance to likely pops going
from most of the region both Thu and Fri before backing off pops
somewhat for the early part of next weekend. Needless to say the
precipitation chances by late in the work week will shut down any
heat related headlines we may have to endure Mon into Wed of next
week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the 14/00Z TAFs, scattered areas of showers in deep east Texas
and north central Louisiana continue to diminish as of this hour,
but impacts from RA and TS remain possible at area terminals,
primarily KLFK and KMLU, through the 14/03Z hour. Along with
showers and storms, cloud decks look to dissipate into the
evening, leaving SCT to BKN mid to high level cloud decks through
the post midnight and predawn hours. Tomorrow will see similar
conditions as today, with redeveloping Cu field in the midmorning
and scattered showers and thunderstorms after 14/18Z, primarily
along and south of the I-20 corridor. Southwesterly winds will
remain relatively light throughout, at sustained speeds not much
exceeding 5 kts, and limited gusts, if any.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  77  97 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  76  93  74  96 /  20  40  20  20
DEQ  71  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  76  95  76  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  93  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
TYR  75  95  76  96 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  74  93  74  95 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26