865
FXUS64 KSHV 160203
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
903 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 823 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Little in the way of late day convection for us with the last
cell in Caldwell Parish now gone, one of two there and one in
Sabine Parish was about it measurably speaking. The shear axis
over the ridge and along the trough has expanded/translated
eastward and generally out of area for decent convective
coverage. The day`s headlines have expired with heat indices
dropping back to double digit territory. Current temps much like
last night are mostly in the 80s with calm or light S/SE wind. We
have updated the zones to clean up the headlines gone and right
back in place again tomorrow from 10am to 8pm for our Friday. No
changes needed to the afternoon package for tonight with
persistence lingering into the weekend temperature wise, even
ramping up a tad with more of our area in an excessive heat
warning for Friday. Likewise we will be updating the
warning/advisory with tomorrow`s info soon. /24/


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

This weekend will see the upper level ridge associated with the
aforementioned high pressure to our west amplify significantly, with
its ridge axis extending north across the Rocky Mountains into
southern Canada, complemented by deepening troughs off the coast of
the Pacific northwest and over the Northeastern CONUS.

At least through the weekend, the high and ridge will maintain an
almost pyramidal shape, with the northeastern-facing diagonal
positioned just so in order to allow some northwest flow aloft to
clip the ArkLaTex from the north and east. There are still not
widespread impacts expected, beyond the near daily isolated
showers and storms across our eastern third in northern Louisiana
and southern Arkansas.

As the new work week begins, the center of the upper level high will
migrate very little, but as the feature morphs, distends and
reorganizes itself, the ridge may manage to inch just far enough
east to shut out rainfall chances altogether Monday and Tuesday,
followed by a return of afternoon convection next Wednesday,
influenced by northeasterly flow aloft. Recent behavior of long
range models has shown notable variation from one run to the next,
so these details would be best taken with a grain of salt.

In broad strokes, however, afternoon highs will continue to be in
the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees through the weekend, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not
even dipping below 80 by daybreak. This heat wave may finally begin
to break somewhat early next week as the morphing upper level
high allows for northeasterly flow to funnel some (relatively)
cooler air into the ArkLaTex. The latest NBM guidance shows highs
more in the 90s than the 100s by Monday, with even some upper 80s
possible across portions of southern Arkansas Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lows likewise look to make a return to the lower to
middle 70s, with a few upper 60s possible north and east.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 15/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has develop across the region early this
afternoon, and will persist through the day before diminishing
by/shortly after sunset. Very isolated convection may develop by
mid and late afternoon over ECntrl LA, but will not affect the MLU
terminal. Aside from some thin cirrus overnight, SKC will prevail,
with another cu field gradually developing across the region
between 15-17Z Friday. SSW winds 5-9kts this afternoon will become
S and diminish to 5kts or less after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81 101  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
MLU  79 101  78 101 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  79 101  78 102 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  77  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  80 100  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  98  76  99 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ149-152-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15