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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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865 FXUS64 KSHV 160203 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 903 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 823 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Little in the way of late day convection for us with the last cell in Caldwell Parish now gone, one of two there and one in Sabine Parish was about it measurably speaking. The shear axis over the ridge and along the trough has expanded/translated eastward and generally out of area for decent convective coverage. The day`s headlines have expired with heat indices dropping back to double digit territory. Current temps much like last night are mostly in the 80s with calm or light S/SE wind. We have updated the zones to clean up the headlines gone and right back in place again tomorrow from 10am to 8pm for our Friday. No changes needed to the afternoon package for tonight with persistence lingering into the weekend temperature wise, even ramping up a tad with more of our area in an excessive heat warning for Friday. Likewise we will be updating the warning/advisory with tomorrow`s info soon. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 This weekend will see the upper level ridge associated with the aforementioned high pressure to our west amplify significantly, with its ridge axis extending north across the Rocky Mountains into southern Canada, complemented by deepening troughs off the coast of the Pacific northwest and over the Northeastern CONUS. At least through the weekend, the high and ridge will maintain an almost pyramidal shape, with the northeastern-facing diagonal positioned just so in order to allow some northwest flow aloft to clip the ArkLaTex from the north and east. There are still not widespread impacts expected, beyond the near daily isolated showers and storms across our eastern third in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. As the new work week begins, the center of the upper level high will migrate very little, but as the feature morphs, distends and reorganizes itself, the ridge may manage to inch just far enough east to shut out rainfall chances altogether Monday and Tuesday, followed by a return of afternoon convection next Wednesday, influenced by northeasterly flow aloft. Recent behavior of long range models has shown notable variation from one run to the next, so these details would be best taken with a grain of salt. In broad strokes, however, afternoon highs will continue to be in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees through the weekend, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. This heat wave may finally begin to break somewhat early next week as the morphing upper level high allows for northeasterly flow to funnel some (relatively) cooler air into the ArkLaTex. The latest NBM guidance shows highs more in the 90s than the 100s by Monday, with even some upper 80s possible across portions of southern Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows likewise look to make a return to the lower to middle 70s, with a few upper 60s possible north and east. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 15/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has develop across the region early this afternoon, and will persist through the day before diminishing by/shortly after sunset. Very isolated convection may develop by mid and late afternoon over ECntrl LA, but will not affect the MLU terminal. Aside from some thin cirrus overnight, SKC will prevail, with another cu field gradually developing across the region between 15-17Z Friday. SSW winds 5-9kts this afternoon will become S and diminish to 5kts or less after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 101 80 102 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 79 101 78 101 / 0 10 10 10 DEQ 75 99 74 100 / 0 10 0 10 TXK 79 101 78 102 / 0 10 0 10 ELD 77 99 76 100 / 0 10 10 10 TYR 80 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 77 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ149-152- 165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15