865
FXUS64 KSHV 090020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Rest of today: Tropical Storm Beryl continues to push through our
region this afternoon. This storm has produced a large amount of
tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes across much of east Texas
and central Louisiana already in the outer bands. Not anticipating
any of this letting up anytime soon and a Tornado Watch remains in
effect for much of the area through 10:00 PM tonight. In addition
to the tornado warnings, we also have a Flash Flooding potential
across the area as rainfall amounts up to 4-5 inches will be
possible.

Heading into this evening and overnight, we will continue to see
moderate to heavy rainfall along with strong thunderstorms and
gusty winds. Towards Tuesday morning we should see most of the
rain starting to move northeast and out of the area as the
remnants of Beryl push out of our region. Overnight temperatures
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Skies
will start to clear out on Tuesday in the wake of Beryl.
Temperatures will remain somewhat on the cooler side, with highs
ranging from the lower to upper 80s across the region. With
everything going on and some uncertainty with any wrap around
moisture, we are leaving the Flood Watch in place through early
Tuesday afternoon although there is a good chance that we could
let it expire early as the system exits the area. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

All eyes are highly focused on the short term portion of the
forecast. As such, will make the long term discussion fairly short
and sweet. Overall theme is that we will see increasing
temperatures through the rest of this week, into the weekend, and
even into next week as high pressure builds in the from the west.
Most of our precipitation chances will be confined to our southern
zones through the rest of the week with some uncertainty heading
into the weekend but overall QPF amounts will be on the low end
following Beryl. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, TD Beryl continues to lift N/NE at
16mph across E TX with the center 30mi SE of KTYR at 7pm. Storms
will soon be ending for us. IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby will soon
linger for all our sites in the wake with shifting sfc and low
level winds from E to SE and eventually S by daybreak. Daylight
will spin the dial to W then NW with 10-16G25KT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  71  93 /  90  20  10  10
MLU  73  86  69  92 /  80  20  10  10
DEQ  66  85  64  91 / 100  40  10   0
TXK  70  87  68  92 / 100  40  10  10
ELD  69  82  65  91 / 100  40  10  10
TYR  69  88  70  92 / 100  10   0   0
GGG  69  87  69  92 / 100  10   0   0
LFK  70  88  70  92 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-
     071.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ001-002-010.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>013-017-
     018.

OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ077.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...24