595
FXUS64 KSHV 110545
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Seasonably cool surface high pressure centered across the Ohio
River Valley into the ArkLaMiss to bring overnight lows into the
low to mid 60s tonight across these areas. Elsewhere, overnight
low temperatures will average in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Convection from earlier this afternoon across portions of Oklahoma
has allowed for lingering high clouds across the I-30 corridor
this evening. With these areas along the northern periphery of an
upper-level ridge centered across Texas, a few showers may be
possible across the Red River Valley into south Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma overnight. Current forecast is on track at
this time with no update necessary. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

High pressure over terrafirma is our best friend in August,
unfortunately it will be modifying as quickly as it arrived.
Current readings are still moreso in the upper 80s than lower 90s,
but we will tap on a bit more for the highs. The 1024mb high
pressure system is centered over SE MO and sprawling all down the
MS River Valley. Fair skies for us with these new and improved dew
points (backdoored) will remain for most of the weekend on E/NE
winds. In fact, the NE winds extend into great altitudes aside
from a little N/NW flow in the mid levels. So we are going a
little cooler than NBM for the new day or two on lows. Once this
air mass modifies a bit more, and our surface winds veer to E/SE
early in the long term, both spell returning heat and humidity. So
enjoy this weekend as it an exception to what is going to soon be
"normal" again. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

As mentioned the large surface air mass weakens and slides
eastward as the upper ridge resumes position over midSouth. These
climbing heights aloft will compress down a little extra heat,
coupled with the returning humidity off the Gulf will bring back
our Heat Advisory headlines early in the new work week. The storm
track lingers over the top of the 594dam ridge from NM and TX
across LA and the NW GoM. So just a smidge of QPF on the northern
fringe for now and then a touch off the Gulf for our southern tier.
It looks like the heat index may hold out on Monday for most of
our Four- State area, but it will be questionable with some
mention now of 105 in a few spots. That will grow to encompass our
entire region by Tuesday and right on the through the extended
period and beyond. So prepare to stay hydrated my friends. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours.
However, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover can be expected
as a frontal boundary lifts northeast across the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Western and Central
Oklahoma ahead of this front, and some of this convection could
affect Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and
Southwest Arkansas north of Interstate 30 between 11/15z-and
11/23z. However, current thinking is that any precip that moves
into the area should remain north of all TAF sites.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  98  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  97  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  69  94  72  99 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  71  98  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  95  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  98  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  97  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  97  75  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...09