654
FXUS64 KSHV 111533
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1033 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Tweaked slight chance pops down over the Texarkana vicinity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Light NE winds over our I-30 corridor and I-20 in most of LA, but
SE winds are into the Shreveport/Bossier metro area. Much of E TX
is S/SE with fair skies most everywhere except I-30. A decaying
complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to sink S/SEward.
Most of our pops covered this activity with slight to chance
wording, but a little spoke has been persistent from near Mt.
Pleasant a couple hours ago, to now in Bowie and Cass Counties.
Light amounts here and in the Texarkana vicinity will continue for
a few hours as this nocturnal push is buffed away by fresh heating.
Currently, we see mid 70s north of I-30 under the bulk of
cloudiness and most rain area reaching the ground. Elsewhere, a
range of low to mid 80s in the sunshine will tack on another 10
degrees. So no changes needed to temps are needed. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Heating trend is going to continue into Tuesday, with afternoon
high temperatures returning to the mid 90s to around 100 degrees
across the region. Additionally, heat index values will range from
around 105 to 110 and should prompt at least a more widespread
Heat Advisory across the region. Wednesday and Thursday will be
slightly warmer than Tuesday, with highs ranging more from the mid
90s to lower 100s and heat index values once again reaching
dangerous levels. Honestly, it looks like the rest of next week is
going to be hot and miserable with temperatures ranging from the
mid 90s to lower 100s and heat products likely into next weekend.
There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms later in the
week for portions of the area, but confidence is not super high at
this time, and should anything develop, QPF amounts look to be on
the lower side. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A large complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving east-
southeast through Central and Eastern Oklahoma at the start of the
period. The southern flank of this convection will likely affect
Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest
Arkansas. Model guidance has been consistent in weakening the
convection as it moves into our area later this morning. However,
the models have also not been handling this complex well. Thus,
the forecast is very uncertain. Given the poor model performance,
VCTS was inserted for KTXK between 11/18z and 11/22z. Current
thinking is the precip will not affect the other TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with increasing
mid and high-level cloud cover.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  93  72  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  89  69  95  72 /  30  10  10   0
TXK  93  74  98  77 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  90  70  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  97  76  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09