891
FXUS64 KSHV 140604
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
104 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The evening upper air analysis indicated that a weak shear axis
still lingers across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with much of the
scattered convection having diminished by early evening with the
loss of heating. However, the mosaic radar imagery still indicates
isolated -SHRA persisting just W of LFK and over SE Union, Nrn
Ouachita, and Caldwell Parishes in NE LA, and for that reason,
have extended slight chance pops through 06Z Sunday for these
areas with the expectation that these will diminish over the next
hour or so. Otherwise, elevated cigs will persist overnight near
this shear axis, which will hold temps up over much of the region.
The current min temps forecast in the lower to mid 70s still
looks to be in good shape, and thus, no changes were needed.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape, with
additional mainly afternoon scattered convection again developing
near this weakness aloft especially over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As expected, an uptick in convection today across our southwest
third as this is an embedded area of higher pwat that had been
locked closer to the coast the last several days. This moisture
source is coinciding with a 500mb shear axis that extends across
SE TX into N LA and SC AR with this feature expected to remain
stalled across our region through at least Sunday. Current pops in
the high chance variety extend across the southern half of our
region but this convection will likely dissipate the later in the
evening we go. Have therefore held onto small pops mainly near
and south of the I-30 Corridor for the mid to late evening hours
before removing pops from the forecast for the remainder of the
night. Mid to high level cloud cover in association with the shear
axis will again help to hold overnight low temperatures up so
have sided with the warmer MOS guidance concerning overnight low
temperatures.

Sunday appears to be a carbon copy of today, except perhaps pop
weighted a little heavier to our southeast and east compared to
today. Cloud cover should help to hold temperatures down again,
not to mention rain chances and as a result, should not have to
worry about any possible heat headlines as Heat Indices should
remain below heat Advisory Criteria of 105 degrees. Like tonight,
held onto slight chance pops across all but our far northern zones
to account for any remaining early evening convection before
dissipating later Sunday Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As we transition into the the early and middle part of the work
week, while there will still be some semblance of the upper level
shear axis in place across our region. It will be in a much
weaker state as the center of this feature will have moved north
and east into the Lower/Middle Miss/Tenn Valleys. Therefore the
best forcing will have shifted north and east of our region and
that will coincide with the best available moisture as higher
pwats will have shifted north and east as well. For Monday, held
onto slight chance pops across our east half but removed pops for
Tue into the first half of Wed given that pwats are reduced to
below 1.5 inches. As we lose the moisture, then we will have lost
the cloud cover which means temperatures should soar back into the
middle and upper 90s. Typically with drier low and mid levels,
this should allow for a mixing down of afternoon dewpoints which
may keep us from exceeding Heat Advisory criteria but could easily
see at least a portion of our region needing a Heat Advisory by
Monday, maybe more widespread by Tue into Wed before rain chances
return in earnest Thu into Fri.

Speaking of those rain chances, the setup is the arrival of an
upstream longwave trough, virtually unheard of for the middle of
July. This system will dive south and east, into the Southern
Plains on Wed and into the heart of our region Thu into Fri. This
system will likely drag a frontal boundary south and east with it,
only helping to focus showers and thunderstorms along with it. NBM
pops continue to creep up for these two days next week so given
the run to run consistency, kept high chance to likely pops going
from most of the region both Thu and Fri before backing off pops
somewhat for the early part of next weekend. Needless to say the
precipitation chances by late in the work week will shut down any
heat related headlines we may have to endure Mon into Wed of next
week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the 14/06 TAF period, scattered to broken mid and high level
clouds are observed across our airspace early this morning with
VFR conditions prevailing. As we approach daybreak, will monitor
terminals for vsby restrictions due to patchy fog. Don`t expect
this fog to be widespread or dense given the cloud cover in place
so decided to forego any mention in the TAFs for now. However, the
most likely terminal to see any fog develop is LFK so will amend
as needed. Otherwise, look for a cu field to redevelop later today
with isolated to widely scattered convection possible during the
afternoon. For now, have held off including any convection in the
O6Z TAF cycle due to low confidence and will reevaluate with the
12Z issuance. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more
S/SW between 5-10 kts later today.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  77  97  77 /  30  20  20   0
MLU  93  74  96  76 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  72  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  95  76  97  77 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  93  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  95  76  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  74  95  74 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  92  74  94  73 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...19