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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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854 FXUS64 KSHV 112004 CCA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 304 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Getting back to hot already with winds slacking a bit compared to yesterday. Current readings are in the low to mid 90s with light and variable winds south of I-20, but still 5 to 10 mph from the NE along and east of I-49. Heat index is still realizing only a few triples so far, but a few more perhaps as temps max out in the next hour or two. Overnight with fair skies generally speaking with thinning clouds north of I-20, we will see more low to mid 70s and only an isolated upper 60. The models are looking at more light and variable wind for early Monday that encompasses nearly all of our cwa. These lighter winds will be only slowly changing the dew point or just not be mixing it much, but better speeds should mix some in the afternoon. However, with the light winds early, we will get a bigger jump on air temps heating, so look for mid to upper 90s to start the new week. The surface ridge axis is east of the MS River now with pressure back on the fall as the 10022mb high slides eastward. Overnight tomorrow will be slightly warmer with some upper 70s cropping up. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 By Tuesday the upper ridge will be restored over much of the midSouth and SE U.S. with a 595dam core elongated over the Red River Valley to down over FL. These higher heights will keep the mercury climbing back toward triple digit territory for mid to late week. Our dew points should be able to mix a bit each day as the soil continues to parch. So here is hoping we can limit the headlines to just an advisory. For now we look to keep dry, but there are signs some afternoon convection may accompany the remaining nocturnal near misses to our north. The sea breeze looks somewhat better by midweek, but still not worth a mention. The GFS likes a pattern change with a decent trough over the plains by late week. This could bring another shot at some nocturnal activity by this time next week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF maintains a small 594dam core over the lower MS River Valley. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 For the 11/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail even as mid and high level clouds will continue to expand across our airspace this afternoon. This cloud cover is associated with a expansive area of upstream convection across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Convection is expected to remain north of our area terminals although a few showers may come close to KTXK/KELD later this afternoon. Otherwise, look for residual cloud cover to persist overnight but generally above 10Kft. Cu field should make a return on Monday with mostly light and variable winds trending more S/SE during the latter half of the period into Monday. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 96 79 99 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 72 97 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 DEQ 68 93 73 99 / 10 10 0 10 TXK 73 95 78 101 / 0 10 0 10 ELD 70 93 74 98 / 10 10 0 10 TYR 76 98 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 75 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 74 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19