390
FXUS64 KSHV 112325
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Getting back to hot already with winds slacking a bit compared to
yesterday. Current readings are in the low to mid 90s with light
and variable winds south of I-20, but still 5 to 10 mph from the
NE along and east of I-49. Heat index is still realizing only a
few triples so far, but a few more perhaps as temps max out in
the next hour or two. Overnight with fair skies generally
speaking with thinning clouds north of I-20, we will see more low
to mid 70s and only an isolated upper 60. The models are looking
at more light and variable wind for early Monday that encompasses
nearly all of our cwa. These lighter winds will be only slowly
changing the dew point or just not be mixing it much, but better
speeds should mix some in the afternoon. However, with the light
winds early, we will get a bigger jump on air temps heating, so
look for mid to upper 90s to start the new week. The surface ridge
axis is east of the MS River now with pressure back on the fall
as the 10022mb high slides eastward. Overnight tomorrow will be
slightly warmer with some upper 70s cropping up. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

By Tuesday the upper ridge will be restored over much of the
midSouth and SE U.S. with a 595dam core elongated over the Red
River Valley to down over FL. These higher heights will keep the
mercury climbing back toward triple digit territory for mid to
late week. Our dew points should be able to mix a bit each day as
the soil continues to parch. So here is hoping we can limit the
headlines to just an advisory. For now we look to keep dry, but
there are signs some afternoon convection may accompany the
remaining nocturnal near misses to our north. The sea breeze
looks somewhat better by midweek, but still not worth a mention.
The GFS likes a pattern change with a decent trough over the
plains by late week. This could bring another shot at some
nocturnal activity by this time next week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
maintains a small 594dam core over the lower MS River Valley. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper-level ridge centered across north Texas to allow for weak
northwest flow across the I-30 corridor which could be conducive
for VCTS conditions across TXK/ELD on Monday afternoon. Otherwise,
stable VFR conditions to persist areawide through the terminal
forecast period ending 13/00Z. With a prevailing surface high
across the region, light southwest winds to prevail through the
period. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  79  99 /   0  10   0  10
MLU  72  97  77 101 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  68  93  73  99 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  73  95  78 101 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  70  93  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  76  98  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  98  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  74  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05