249
FXUS64 KSHV 120547
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Getting back to hot already with winds slacking a bit compared to
yesterday. Current readings are in the low to mid 90s with light
and variable winds south of I-20, but still 5 to 10 mph from the
NE along and east of I-49. Heat index is still realizing only a
few triples so far, but a few more perhaps as temps max out in
the next hour or two. Overnight with fair skies generally
speaking with thinning clouds north of I-20, we will see more low
to mid 70s and only an isolated upper 60. The models are looking
at more light and variable wind for early Monday that encompasses
nearly all of our cwa. These lighter winds will be only slowly
changing the dew point or just not be mixing it much, but better
speeds should mix some in the afternoon. However, with the light
winds early, we will get a bigger jump on air temps heating, so
look for mid to upper 90s to start the new week. The surface ridge
axis is east of the MS River now with pressure back on the fall
as the 10022mb high slides eastward. Overnight tomorrow will be
slightly warmer with some upper 70s cropping up. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

By Tuesday the upper ridge will be restored over much of the
midSouth and SE U.S. with a 595dam core elongated over the Red
River Valley to down over FL. These higher heights will keep the
mercury climbing back toward triple digit territory for mid to
late week. Our dew points should be able to mix a bit each day as
the soil continues to parch. So here is hoping we can limit the
headlines to just an advisory. For now we look to keep dry, but
there are signs some afternoon convection may accompany the
remaining nocturnal near misses to our north. The sea breeze
looks somewhat better by midweek, but still not worth a mention.
The GFS likes a pattern change with a decent trough over the
plains by late week. This could bring another shot at some
nocturnal activity by this time next week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
maintains a small 594dam core over the lower MS River Valley. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail for the duration of the 24
period. Winds will be somewhat variable between southwest and
southeast after 12/12z in most locations, but sustained wind
speeds should remain under 10 kts. Convection may once again move
into areas north of the Interstate 30 corridor during the daytime
hours. It is very uncertain if the convection will persist far
enough south to affect KTXK, but a mention of VCTS maintained in
this TAF issuance.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  99  80 100 /   0  10   0   0
MLU  77 101  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
DEQ  73  99  73  99 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  78 101  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  74  98  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
TYR  79  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  97  76  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...09