340
FXUS64 KSHV 070518
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will continue today, generally
   keeping east of the I-49 corridor, a "rinse and repeat" pattern
   which looks to continue throughout this forecast period.

 - Storms may increase in coverage from the north during the
   middle of the week as a trough swings southward over the
   Ozarks.

 - Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout,
   with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week and
   into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

As one of our former forecasters likes to say, "if you`ve read
one AFD lately, you`ve read `em all." We are well and truly in the
depths of summer, and the rinse and repeat pattern of afternoon
convection will be in play every day through the course of this
forecast period. The only deviation from that routine will be in
the form of additional convection, as a more active pattern
continues to appear in store Tuesday through Thursday.

This afternoon`s thunderstorms look to be distributed over a similar
coverage area to yesterday`s with the highest chances for rainfall
along and east of the I-49 corridor, and east Texas remaining
comparably drier, with isolated storms if any. Like with recent near-
term forecasts, elected to more widely distribute Chc and SChc PoPs,
accounting for recent overperformance in the way of outflow-driven
additional convection. Temperatures will quickly climb from the low
to mid 70s this morning to the low to middle 90s by late afternoon.
At sites where convection is slow to develop or arrive, readings
approaching the upper 90s may be possible, especially south and
east at our Louisiana sites.

For much of the week ahead, upper level flow will continue
attempting to enclose a large area of high pressure over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest, building north over the Four
Corners region as an upper level ridge amplifies, before losing
organizational structure, then organizing itself again. The
positioning of these upper level features from day to day will be
very consequential to our forecast, as the eastward extent of the
high pressure`s influence will either inhibit or allow for afternoon
diurnally-driven convection, depending on its reach, and possibly
permit the influence of an upper level feature from the north by mid
week. As mentioned above, Tuesday through Thursday shows a
noticeable uptick in PoPs across the area, especially north of the I-
20 corridor, as models pick up on a shortwave trough swinging
eastward across the Ozarks.

By the end of the week, we will see a return to the classic
summertime pattern which is defining much of the foreseeable future:
afternoon and early evening thunderstorm chances on a daily basis,
with the highest chances east of the I-49 corridor. Highs through
midweek will still be warm but less extreme than recent guidance
suggested, with widespread middle 90s. Long range guidance indicates
a bit of a warming trend possible late in the week with a few upper
90s returning to the maxT grids, especially going into next weekend,
while lows remain in the 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the 07/00Z TAF period, scattered convection remains ongoing
over the eastern and southern sections of our airspace early this
evening. Therefore, have kept VCTS included at a few terminals for
the first few hours of the period with KELD also having tempo TSRA
given the latest radar trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions should be
generally prevailing throughout the period with higher convective
debris clouds lingering overnight. Although not included in this
TAF cycle, will have to watch for the potential of some patchy fog
closer to daybreak in areas where rainfall has occurred today. For
the latter half of the period, look for an expansive cu field once
again on Monday with scattered convection expected by mid to late
afternoon so went with VCTS starting around 07/21Z. Winds will be
primarily from the S/SW between 5-10 kts although lighter and more
variable overnight with higher gusts possible invof convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  93  76 /  30  20  50  20
MLU  97  74  95  75 /  30  20  60  20
DEQ  93  71  91  71 /  40  20  50  20
TXK  96  74  94  74 /  30  20  50  20
ELD  95  72  92  72 /  30  20  50  20
TYR  92  75  92  74 /  20  10  40  10
GGG  94  74  93  74 /  20  10  50  20
LFK  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19