420
FXUS64 KSHV 130247
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
947 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The eastward movement of the upper ridge is the main story this
evening as temperatures remain in the upper 70`s and low 80`s.
Afternoon cumulus field has dissipated, while some scattered mid
and upper level clouds drift north to south. Aside from adjusting
the hourlies to match latest trends, no other changes are needed
at this time.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Upper level ridging centered over west Texas will continue to drift
east in the coming days, driving temperatures up further and locking
in place the hot and mostly dry pattern throughout most of this
forecast period.

That being said, while weather conditions will remain mostly dry
across the ArkLaTex, the same cannot be said for our humidity, and
this will combine with the heat to unpleasant effect as soon as
tomorrow, when temperatures approach or reach the century mark
during the afternoon. Dew points spiking back into the low to mid
70s will make it feel anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer, hence
the issuance of a Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 11 AM
to 8 PM Tuesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades
possible.

A sliver of our southernmost zones in deep east Texas may see some
very isolated storms tomorrow afternoon, but these chances are
slight to begin with, and may be inhibited altogether by the effects
of the ridging. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday morning will
be followed by another quiet and hot day of upper 90s and lower
100s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Honestly, once you`ve got a handle on one day`s worth of our
forecast, it`s pretty much rinse and repeat from here on out.
Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not
even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The stubborn humidity may relent
slightly later in the week, but not enough to keep apparent
temperatures from climbing back into advisory criteria for several
hours each afternoon.

The subsident effects of the ridging will keep any sort of active
weather at bay through most of the long term forecast period as
well, continuing through at least Saturday and much of Sunday. By
late in the weekend, models begin to disagree on the behavior and
position of our upper level features. The GFS keeps the ridge parked
squarely overhead, prolonging the heat and the dry, while the ECMWF
retrogrades the ridge back into the Four Corners, opening the door
to some troughing overhead for us. For now, the NBM attempts to
split the difference and keeps much of the ArkLaTex dry, while
introducing a slight chance of showers and storms during the
afternoon hours for our easternmost zones late in the weekend and
into early next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Light and variable winds overnight to become southeast at 4 to 6
knots on Tuesday. Otherwise, with upper-level ridging aloft, VFR
conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast
period ending 14/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  80 101 /   0  10   0  10
MLU  76 100  77 101 /  10  10   0  10
DEQ  70  98  73 100 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  74 100  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  72  98  75  99 /   0  10   0  10
TYR  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76  98  77  98 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  76  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05