Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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420 FXUS64 KSHV 130247 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 947 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The eastward movement of the upper ridge is the main story this evening as temperatures remain in the upper 70`s and low 80`s. Afternoon cumulus field has dissipated, while some scattered mid and upper level clouds drift north to south. Aside from adjusting the hourlies to match latest trends, no other changes are needed at this time. RK && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper level ridging centered over west Texas will continue to drift east in the coming days, driving temperatures up further and locking in place the hot and mostly dry pattern throughout most of this forecast period. That being said, while weather conditions will remain mostly dry across the ArkLaTex, the same cannot be said for our humidity, and this will combine with the heat to unpleasant effect as soon as tomorrow, when temperatures approach or reach the century mark during the afternoon. Dew points spiking back into the low to mid 70s will make it feel anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer, hence the issuance of a Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible. A sliver of our southernmost zones in deep east Texas may see some very isolated storms tomorrow afternoon, but these chances are slight to begin with, and may be inhibited altogether by the effects of the ridging. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday morning will be followed by another quiet and hot day of upper 90s and lower 100s. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Honestly, once you`ve got a handle on one day`s worth of our forecast, it`s pretty much rinse and repeat from here on out. Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week, but not enough to keep apparent temperatures from climbing back into advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon. The subsident effects of the ridging will keep any sort of active weather at bay through most of the long term forecast period as well, continuing through at least Saturday and much of Sunday. By late in the weekend, models begin to disagree on the behavior and position of our upper level features. The GFS keeps the ridge parked squarely overhead, prolonging the heat and the dry, while the ECMWF retrogrades the ridge back into the Four Corners, opening the door to some troughing overhead for us. For now, the NBM attempts to split the difference and keeps much of the ArkLaTex dry, while introducing a slight chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours for our easternmost zones late in the weekend and into early next week. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Light and variable winds overnight to become southeast at 4 to 6 knots on Tuesday. Otherwise, with upper-level ridging aloft, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period ending 14/00Z. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 100 80 101 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 76 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 70 98 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 74 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 72 98 75 99 / 0 10 0 10 TYR 78 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 76 98 77 98 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 76 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...05