059
FXUS64 KSHV 110714
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
214 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Surface high pressure to prevail across the region today allowing
for light winds areawide. An upper-level trough extending from the
Great Lakes southward across the midwest will allow for increased
instability areawide. However, with a lack of available moisture,
mainly dry conditions to prevail areawide with the exception of a
few seabreeze generated showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
I-20 during the late afternoon hours. With increased mixing due
to the prevailing upper-trough aloft, temperatures will again
remain seasonably normal with highs in the mid 90s.

Under mostly clear skies tonight, overnight lows to range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

A surface low retrograding west into the Carolinas will elongate
allowing for a surface trough to extend across the northern Gulf
Coast on Friday. Surface boundary combined with prevailing upper-
trough will allow for slightly higher rain chances mainly south of
I-20 on Friday. Afternoon highs on Friday to again average in the
mid 90s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper-level ridge to gradually build across the region through
the weekend gradually eroding the upper-trough. Diurnal
convection to gradually diminish each day, becoming nearly non-
existent by Tuesday except for slight chances across portions of
north Louisiana along a weakness along the southern periphery of
the upper-ridge.

As the ridge rebuilds from Sunday onward, afternoon high
temperatures will creep to near 100 degrees across much of north
Louisiana and south Arkansas with slightly lesser values
elsewhere across the ArkLaTex. The combination of hot
temperatures and elevated relative humidity values will allow for
heat index values to climb to dangerous levels as early as
Saturday across portions of the ArkLaTex with heat headlines
expected through the remainder of the long-term period ending
Thursday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the 11/06Z TAF period, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some afternoon Cu fields likely to redevelop
airspace-wide as southerly surface winds gradually return. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  76  97  77 /  10   0  20  10
MLU  95  72  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  96  72  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  94  71  96  71 /  10   0  10   0
TYR  95  73  94  75 /  10   0  10   0
GGG  95  73  94  74 /  10   0  20   0
LFK  94  73  93  74 /  20   0  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16