115
FXUS64 KSHV 131144
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Well, here we are...the day we have been talking about for the
past few days...the day we start issuing heat products that will
most likely be needed through the end of the week. Bottom line,
upper-level ridging will continue to build into our region this
week, prompting only warmer and warmer temperatures. For today,
afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 90s to 100 degrees
across the region. Heat index values will be in excess of 105
degrees today which has prompted a Heat Advisory to go into effect
at 11 am this morning. There is a non zero chance for some
thunderstorm development across our far southern zones this
afternoon, but any QPF amounts will be on the lower side.

The heat will continue on Wednesday as afternoon temperatures once
again climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values will once again climb above 105 degrees across the area.
As such, we will need at least a Heat Advisory for portions of the
area and an Excessive Heat Warning for the rest. Here in lies the
problem, with the current Heat Advisory in place for today, adding
an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday complicates messaging. As
such, I can assure you that some portions of the area will need
this, but we will have to wait to actually put one out to make
sure the message remains valid. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

I am going to attempt to break down the long-term by days...

Thursday: early morning temperatures will range from the mid 70s
to around 80 degrees across the region. Temperatures will quickly
climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by the
afternoon hours. Heat index values in excess of 105 are once again
expected with some locations climbing to or above 110 degrees. As
a result, there will be a need for widespread Heat Advisory or
Excessive Heat Warnings for the area. There are some low end PoPs
in the forecast for afternoon diurnal convection, but confidence
is pretty low right now.

Friday: Copy and paste!

Saturday: Copy and paste!

Sunday: Copy and paste!

Monday: Copy and paste!

Try to stay cool!

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Winds will be somewhat variable across the region today, generally
oscillating between southwesterly and southeasterly. Sustained
wind speeds should remain below 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR flight
conditions should prevail areawide with high cloud cover
increasing from the north during the daytime hours.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  80 100  80 /  10   0   0   0
MLU 100  77 101  79 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ  97  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  99  78 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  97  75  99  76 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  98  78  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  97  76  97  76 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09