366
FXUS64 KSHV 132319
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper level ridging will continue to exert its influence over
the ArkLaTex throughout this forecast period. The ridge axis will
drift east over the Plains and into the Midwest, but the associated
upper level high will stay well and truly centered over the Four
State Region through the remainder of this week.

Tomorrow looks to play out very similarly to today, with even less
of a rainfall chance, and what looks to be less precipitable water
available to transform into a Cu field during the late to mid
morning. From this set up, look for slightly less oppressive dew
points but higher air temperatures, resulting in ultimately
similar heat indices. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s with
dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat index values
between 105 and 109 degrees, thus have seen fit to issue another
Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM
Wednesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible.

A few widely scattered showers and storms across southeast Arkansas
and northeast Louisiana may manage to intrude into Union county and
Union parish tomorrow afternoon, but the high pressure overhead will
prevent any widespread rainfall impacts. Lows in the mid to upper
70s Thursday morning will be followed by another quiet and hot day
of upper 90s and lower 100s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Not to sound unnecessarily repetitive, but it remains true that once
you`ve got a handle on one day`s worth of our forecast, it`s pretty
much rinse and repeat for the time being. Afternoon highs in the
upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by
daybreak. This stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the
week, but not enough to keep apparent temperatures from climbing
back into advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon.

The GFS depicts upper level features continuing to morph and drift
around us as the week goes on, our area of high pressure will remain
trapped in place through Friday, before a new and deeper high
develops over the Four State Region and starts to absorb our high,
causing it to retrograde and opening the door to slight chances of
afternoon thunderstorms impacting our far southeastern zones in
north central Louisiana during the afternoon hours Friday and
Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, a deepening trough to our east may
manage to influence somewhat more widespread chances of showers, but
the probabilities still look fairly low. Early next week looks to
continue much in the same pattern, with brief chances of very
isolated storms across our far southeast each afternoon.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A weak surface boundary lingering across the the I-20 corridor
will maintain widely scattered convection through 14/01Z with
conditions improving thereafter. Stable conditions expected
overnight with light and variable winds. Winds to become south at
5 knots on Wednesday morning, becoming southwest during the
afternoon with VCTS conditions possible across ELD/MLU/SHV/TXK
terminals from 14/20Z-15/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 100  80 100 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  77 101  79 101 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  75  99  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
TYR  78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  97  76  97 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05