983
FXUS64 KSHV 121616
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1116 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Warmup is going well, just as expected with a descent cu field
expected later today across much of the Four State Region. 16z
temperatures are already in the lower 90s across portions of N LA
and SW AR and those temperatures will only go up from here. Pops
today will mainly be confined areas near and south of the I-20
Corridor given the higher moisture content across these areas.
SLight chance and low end chance pops are warranted. All this is
well handled in the current forecast so no changes were necessary
to temps or pops today.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Typical mid-July weather is expected to continue into this weekend
as we remain flanked by the upper-level ridge out west across the
Four Corners Region and another ridge extending over much of the
SE CONUS. Therefore, persistence is generally expected to prevail
with near to slightly above average temperatures mostly in the mid
90s and a few isolated areas in the upper 90s. Not surprisingly,
this will lead to a return of heat headlines by this weekend with
at least some portions of the region likely reaching heat advisory
criteria on Saturday as Gulf moisture continues to push dew points
higher. Likewise, overnight temperatures will also trend warmer as
well with mostly lower to mid 70s areawide.

As for rain chances, they will be diurnally driven and limited to
our far southern zones this afternoon during peak heating hours.
Slightly higher chances are expected on Saturday with a stronger
sea breeze push, possibly allowing for isolated convection as far
north as the I-20 corridor. However, the main weather story will
continue to be the building heat and humidity through the weekend
and beyond into next week.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Continuing with the weather theme in the short-term, look for heat
headlines to expand across more of the region by late this weekend
into early next week. Rain chances remain limited with isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible on
Sunday before largely diminishing by early to mid next week as the
upper ridge becomes even more dominant. Afternoon high temperatures
will generally range in the mid to upper 90s through at least mid
week before some relief arrives toward the end of this forecast
period.

This heat relief is expected to come by way of a rare mid-summer
cold front arriving on Thursday. Medium-range model progs are in
fairly solid agreement on advancing this front deep into our area
through the end of next week with increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Additionally, temperatures will return closer
to seasonal averages along with drier post-frontal air helping to
bring an end to the heat and humidity expected earlier in the
week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR continues for most aside from a
brief light BR at a few locales this morning. Calm sfc wind will
soon mix down SE around 5KT. Aloft, the SE winds are running at
10-15KT and extend up a few thousand feet, but backs to E/NE abv
5kft. We can expect a good bit of blue sky today with few/sct cu
and some passing cirrus today. Convection will keep generally
south of I-20 for the next couple of afternoons with a weak sea
breeze push in our direction each day. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  96  77 /  10   0  20   0
MLU  96  74  96  75 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  74  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
ELD  96  72  96  74 /   0   0  20   0
TYR  95  74  94  76 /   0   0  20   0
GGG  95  73  94  75 /   0   0  20   0
LFK  93  74  93  74 /  30  10  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24