Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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437 FXUS64 KSHV 141525 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1025 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 As of the 15Z hour, temperatures are near or even slightly below where we were sitting at this time yesterday. Dewpoints continue their stubborn trend of only gradually mixing out, causing sites across the ArkLaTex to be reaching Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 105 or greater) momentarily, if not already. Ultimately, taking conditions thusfar this morning fully into account, no changes appear necessary to the overnight forecast package. We will see daytime highs climb into the upper 90s to near or just above the century mark areawide, with the lone exception of some more elevated sites along the I-30 corridor into Arkansas who have seen more rain cooling effects recently, and may "only" reach the middle 90s this afternoon. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot, scorching, sizzling, sweltering, boiling, blistering, fiery, sultry, scalding....so many different ways to explain the forecast for this entire week! Temperatures today are going to range from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Mix in the humidity and our heat index values will climb above 105 across the region. Because of this, a widespread Heat Advisory remains in place for the area today. One thing to note about today is that the HRRR continues to paint some afternoon convection across portions of southern Arkansas and north central Louisiana. I was not too keen on the idea to increase PoPs today, however, we did see some convection across this same area yesterday so I went ahead and added some 20 PoPs in there for this afternoon. Mild conditions remain in place for tonight, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s across the area. That being said, some locations might not reach below 80 as we are still sitting at 85 degrees in Shreveport as of 2:30 AM. The heat will continue for Thursday with similar conditions in place that we will see today, afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values in excess of 105 degrees. We will once again need at least a Heat Advisory for the entire area on Thursday. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Remember what I said in the short-term portion of the forecast? Well no relief in the oppressive heat will be found in the long- term portion of the forecast. You know, every night for the past couple of night I have looked ahead at the forecast, hoping that there will be some relief. Unfortunately, every night has led to disappointment because this smothering heat looks to continue well into the middle of next week. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values reaching dangerous levels. The never-ending story of stifling heat. One thing to note though, there are some rainfall chances in the long-term period that could bring some very temporary relief to the heat across different portions of the area. But honestly, nothing to write home about as the 7-day QPF is very bleak for our region. The only areas that have anything painted over them are for portions of our far western zones, but even these are very low-end amounts. All I can say is try to stay cool by drinking plenty of water and staying out of the sun during the hottest parts of the day. Try to beat the heat by sipping on something icy and pretending you are on a tropical vacation. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this period. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across South Central Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana between 14/19z-15/02z. KELD and KMLU should be the TAF sites most likely to be affected. Any convection that does develop should quickly dissipate around sunset. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 99 78 100 79 / 20 10 10 10 DEQ 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 98 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 0 TYR 98 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09