647
FXUS64 KSHV 122320
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Higher PWAT values are slowly creeping northward compared to this
time yesterday with latest MesoAnalysis showing values near 1.5
inches as far north as the I-20 Corridor in NE TX and just south
of the corridor in N LA. This is the leading edge of some
slightly higher atmospheric moisture and it`s this ingredient to
go along with a persistent upper level shear axis across our
region with the end result being small rain chances. Starting to see
some isolated activity developing now across Deep East TX into NW
LA along this leading edge of higher moisture and will therefore,
hold onto small pops this evening across our southern third. This
persistent shear axis should result in some elevated cloud cover
across at least the southeast half of our region overnight which
should tend to hold temperatures up slightly so did stay on the
warmer side of MOS guidance concerning overnight low temperatures
tonight.

Concerning Saturday, the same features are in play and that should
allow for more in the way of storm coverage with areas near and
mainly south of the I-20 Corridor likely seeing the greatest storm
coverage. Pops are oriented from isolated coverage across our
northern most zones to high end chance variety across our southern
third. Cloud cover and higher rain chances will likely help with
temperatures on Saturday as well so again, stayed closer to NBM
MOS which suggests more like lower to middle 90s vs upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for afternoon high temps on Sat. The higher
moisture content does mean higher dewpoints, which means higher
humidity and you guessed it, higher Heat Indices. Values should
range from the upper 90s to near 104 for Saturday afternoon which
is just under Heat Advisory Criteria for Saturday.

Held onto evening pops for Sat but most all storm coverage should
dissipate the later into the evening we go. Other than rain cooled
areas Sat Night, overnight low temperatures should be held up by
mid level cloud cover so again, stayed on the higher side of MOS
guidance concerning overnight low temperatures Sat Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Sunday looking very similar to Saturday with a slight uptick in
convection, again giving the available moisture in place and the
persistent 500mb shear axis across Central Texas, through the
heart of our region and into the Tenn Valley. Highest pops are
most warranted across our eastern half on Sunday but still well in
chance category. As we transition into the early and middle part
of next week, deterministic progs have altered their pattern
change we referred to in yesterday afternoon`s forecast
discussion. Instead of a retrograding ridge east of our region
moving overhead Tue into Wed of next week, progs now keep the
ridge east of our region and therefore, keep us more under the
influence of the shear axis, and perhaps eventually, a shortwave
trough passage by Thu into Fri of next week. This would be very
unusual for the middle of July but we`re all about unusual weather
in July after what we experienced with Beryl earlier this week.
Needless to say, rain chances should increase substantially by
late Wed into Thu and perhaps, a frontal passage during this time.
Needless to say given similar output from both the GFS and ECMWF,
did not stray too far from NBM temps and pop output for next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the 13/00Z TAFs, a few very isolated pockets of thunder
tracking northwest towards the I-20 corridor in east Texas look to
dissipate quickly after sundown, along with the 5K Cu field which
has dominated area skies this afternoon. SCT to BKN mid to high
level cloud decks look to remain overnight, however, with the
possibility of thinning out in coverage towards daybreak.
Returning Cu field expected during the mid-morning, with scattered
showers and storms once again in the afternoon hours across our
southern counties and parishes. Southerly winds becoming
southwesterly will remain relatively light throughout, at
sustained speeds not much exceeding 5 kts, and limited gusts,
if any.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  77  94 /  10  30  20  30
MLU  74  96  76  95 /  10  30  20  40
DEQ  70  94  71  93 /   0  20  10  20
TXK  74  96  75  94 /   0  20  20  20
ELD  72  96  73  94 /   0  20  20  30
TYR  74  93  76  93 /  10  30  20  20
GGG  73  93  74  91 /  10  30  20  30
LFK  74  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26