371
FXUS64 KSHV 130853
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The region remains flanked by a pair of strong upper-level ridge
axes, one to NW and the other to the SE. In between, we`ll see a
weakness aloft in the form of a shear axis that will contribute to
scattered convection this weekend. Most of this convection will be
largely diurnally driven during the hours of peak heating but this
shear axis may also allow for showers and thunderstorms to extend
beyond the afternoon hours so did hold over low end PoPs through
early this evening along and south of Interstate 20. Overall, rain
chances will generally reside across the southern half of the area
today and early tonight where PWATs will remain higher as compared
to areas farther north. This is already evident early this morning
as mid-level moisture streams across much of East Texas and North
Louisiana. Given this cloud cover today, high temperatures should
range from the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon. As a result,
we will manage to hold off on any heat headlines for at least one
more day despite the gradually increasing humidity.

With little if any change in the pattern described above, expect a
similar day on Sunday with convective coverage likely extending a
bit farther north across the region as the shear axis lifts more
NE. Likewise, temperatures will run very similar to highs today
with mostly cloudy skies and increasing convection through Sunday
afternoon. Once again, this may help keep max heat index values
just below advisory criteria before the heat really begins to
build by early next week.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As the shear axis aloft shifts farther NE away from the region,
look for rain chances to gradually diminish through early next
week and especially by Tuesday. This will occur as upper-level
ridging becomes more pronounced with high temperatures nudging
higher into the mid and upper 90s to near triple-digit territory
in a few areas. Therefore, it`s likely that heat headlines will be
needed for at least some portions of the region from the early to
middle part of next week before we see any heat relief later in
the week.

This relief from the heat is expected to come by Thursday as a
longwave trough dives southward from the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region across the eastern half of the CONUS. This trough is
expected to be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms as it
ushers a weak cold front into the region late Thursday into Friday
with moderating temperatures and increasing rain chances through
the end of the week, likely extending into the first half of next
weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR, but patchy BR 11-15Z for a few
sites. During the same time, a few showers could be in the KLFK
vcty along with greatest BR restriction down to 2 mi. Moisture
return is on the increase areawide and the sea breeze may have a
little help N with deepening SW flow at FL250. In fact, this flow
has a little impulse on approach with some mid level influence
timing with peak heating. For now VCTS 21-00Z up along I-20 from
KGGG to KSHV, potentially amended for same at KTYR/KTXK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  94  76 /  30  20  40  10
MLU  95  75  94  76 /  20  20  40  10
DEQ  94  71  93  72 /   0  10  10   0
TXK  96  74  95  75 /  10  10  20   0
ELD  94  73  93  73 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  92  74  93  75 /  20  10  30   0
GGG  92  74  93  74 /  30  20  30   0
LFK  89  74  92  73 /  50  20  50   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24