194
FXUS64 KSHV 151614 RRA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

As of 11:00 AM, temperatures have already reached the upper
80/lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. This, in combination with
dew point temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s, sets the stage for
hazardous heat this afternoon and a Heat Advisory as a result.
With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated,
forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Warmer this morning with mostly clear skies. There is a little
more wind areawide from the south mixing temps a bit with mid to
upper 70s widespread. It`s 80 downtown Shreveport for the warmest
and 73 at Peason Ridge and Alexandria for the coolest, both of
which are calm by the way. Dew points like temps ranging all
through the 70s and the posted Heat Advisory for today remains
for all of our cwa. We fell short as hoped yesterday, but the next
few days will see heat advisories. It would be nice to avoid
another excessive upgrade, so we will see how the days unfold
going forward. Our highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid to
upper 90s and lows Tuesday again similar to this morning. So far
the wind is keeping any fog from forming except for a couple of
sites at Mineola and Idabel. Any convection today will remain near
the old 500mb weakness across MS and south LA affecting a few of
our SE Parishes with a cooling shower.

/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Little has changed in our long term outlook with an end to the
heat and a return to cloudiness and rainfall. The cool front is
still headed our way even sooner perhaps with a 1024mb air mass
over the midWest early Thursday. The frontal boundary will be
shifting the winds in the backdoor with likely PoPs for a day or
two and more to come over the weekend with another midWest 1025mb
holding the pattern pat. The WPC has indeed settled the ERO down
over our neck of the woods on day 4 Thursday into Friday. 1 to 2
inch totals seem reasonable and their day 4 QPF is quite similar.
So looking forward to more July rainfall at that time. Until then,
the heat will rule the days and then late week and weekend will
get our temps back to average and below. The brand new 8 to 14
day outlook from CPC has us in leaning below temps and leaning
above precip for just about the rest of this month.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the 15/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the period with the possible exception of very patchy fog
and low stratus at a few sites this morning. However, restrictions
remain outside of area terminals at the time of this TAF issuance.
Otherwise, cloud cover will be mostly limited to thin cirrus and
a returning cu field later on today. Cu field will diminish around
sunset with S/SW winds prevailing between 5-10 kts for much of the
period, decreasing slightly during the evening/overnight hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  78  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  96  75  97  77 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  97  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  75  95  75 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19