951
FXUS64 KSHV 201543
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1043 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

There is little in the way of significant change to speak of in the
short or long term forecasts, i.e. if you`ve been keeping up with
our discussions in recent days, this one will be par for the
course. For full details, read on...

The synoptic pattern which looks to define the majority of this
forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large
area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with
its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West,
while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across
the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains. It is accurate to
say that the above captures the days ahead of us in full, and this
forecast period may be simply defined as unsettled.

Today, however, may actually see a short-lived respite from the
trough-induced activity. For the past few days, a pseudo-stationary
frontal boundary has been producing areas of showers and storms
across the southeastern corner of the ArkLaTex. The boundary has
drifted just enough south and east that PoPs are largely negligible
except for perhaps a stray shower or storm in our central Louisiana
parishes.

It would be something of a stretch to describe today`s conditions as
a relief, however, as we trade rain for heat. Highs will have the
opportunity to climb into the lower 90s, and while dew points will
be slightly lower than recently, they will still be just barely
below the threshold of discomfort, with little in the way of any
cooling breezes, and a warm and fairly muggy afternoon is in store
nonetheless.

Lows will drop off into the upper 60s north and lower 70s south
tonight, before rebounding into the upper 80s to lower 90s once
again Sunday afternoon.

Sunday will see more widespread rain return to the ArkLaTex, though
precisely where and when is still subject to change. At this point,
it looks like early Sunday, the pseudo-stationary boundary will lift
north enough to bring storms to our southeast, while a new
disturbance advances from the northwest, bringing showers and storms
north of I-30. By Sunday afternoon, these areas of activity look to
converge, beginning what looks like a lengthy stretch of near-
areawide precip chances.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

As suggested above, once Sunday`s rainfall begins in earnest, it
does not look to subside much as we head into the new work week.
Areawide rainfall chances will thereafter continue almost to the
end of this long term forecast period, oscillating in coverage and
confidence as further disturbances ride the flow aloft. The
latest long range model guidance indicates particular confidence
in widespread rainfall Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

As the upper level ridging aloft begins to reassert itself and build
somewhat eastward, the upper level pattern will resemble the
northwest flow so characteristic of springtime in the ArkLaTex.
Fortunately, as of this writing, the highest SWO category including
the ArkLaTex is General Thunder. The ERO, meanwhile, indicates the
possibility of heavy rainfall resulting in areas of flash flooding,
and this eventuality will be monitored closely through the coming
days.

High temperatures, will be returning to mid to upper 80s Monday,
where they will remain for most of the week. Lows will remain fairly
steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The end of the week may see a
breakdown of this established upper level pattern, with the eastward
reaching influence of the upper level ridge bringing about
decreasing rainfall chances and increasing temperatures, with a
return of upper 80s and lower 90s by Friday and leading into next
weekend.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 20/12Z TAF period.
Scattered areas of cu have developed this morning across portions
of SE AR/NCntrl LA and Deep E TX, which should persist through the
morning, with additional cu development expected by mid/late
morning through the afternoon, before diminishing by/shortly after
00Z. While SKC should prevail at least through this evening, areas
of cirrus should increase late tonight from the W. NNE winds
around 5kts today will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  93  75 /   0   0  20  30
MLU  91  70  92  72 /  10   0  30  20
DEQ  89  67  88  68 /   0  10  20  40
TXK  91  70  92  72 /   0   0  20  30
ELD  89  67  93  70 /   0   0  20  20
TYR  92  72  92  73 /   0   0  20  30
GGG  91  71  91  72 /   0   0  20  30
LFK  92  72  92  73 /  10   0  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20