824
FXUS64 KSHV 170646
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
146 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The afternoon forecast package remains on track as of the 03Z
hour this evening. Skies should remain mostly clear for the
majority of the ArkLaTex, aside from increasingly cloudy skies
north and west ahead of incoming weather. As of this writing,
rainfall does not look to begin before daybreak, and likely not
until tomorrow afternoon for our northern and southernmost zones.
Ingested the afternoon and evening temperatures and dew point obs
and interpolated through to low temperatures falling into the mid
to upper 70s by 12Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A period of unsettled weather is finally on the horizon, as rain
chances begin to increase into tomorrow evening. These rain
chances will be associated with a deep trough and cold front
dropping south through the midwest. The Heat Advisory that was in
effect for today has been extended through tomorrow, however,
depending on how early the rain and clouds move in, it may not be
needed north of I-30. I did not have confidence in that during my
forecast, so I went ahead and extended it area-wide for simplicy`s
sake. However, I can say that tomorrow will likely be the last
time we need any form of heat headlines for at least the next
week, as upper-level troughing settles in for the long-haul
(thankfully).

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

It`s rare that I get to talk about a "spring like" pattern in
mid-july, but honestly I won`t complain one bit. Considering we`re
likely to get an extended break from the heat during all of this,
I don`t think any of you will complain either. Upper-level ridging
will bulk up to the west, allowing for this deep trough to remain
over the east coast through at least Wednesday of next week.
Various disturbances should ride between the ridge and trough,
allowing for rain chances to remain in for most of the long-term
as well.

The trough will also allow for colder air to filter into the
region, aided by the sustained north flow. Additionally, the
afternoon cloud cover and rain chances will also aid in keeping
afternoon highs below average. There may be a few days here and
there where we sneak into the low-90s, but for the most part,
highs will range in the mid to upper-80s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the 17/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with just some
upstream cirrus spilling south of the Red River into parts of NE
Texas. This cirrus is associated with convection just to our north
along an advancing cold front moving through the Southern Plains
and Ozarks. As we approach daybreak, some patchy low stratus will
be possible over parts of lower East Texas before lifting into a
cu field later in the day. As the front to our north approaches
our northern airspace late in the TAF period, convection will be
possible around/after 18/00Z at TXK/ELD so have included VCTS at
these sites. Otherwise, look for light S/SW winds to increase by
15Z between 5-10 kts, then become more variable by 18/00Z ahead
of the approaching cold front.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  75  90  73 /  20  40  70  50
MLU  98  74  90  71 /  20  40  80  50
DEQ  94  70  87  66 /  30  60  50  10
TXK  97  73  89  70 /  20  60  70  20
ELD  97  70  87  68 /  20  50  70  30
TYR  98  74  90  72 /  20  30  60  30
GGG  97  73  90  71 /  20  30  70  40
LFK  96  74  91  72 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19