273
FXUS64 KSHV 170937
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
437 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mostly clear over the ArkLaTex right now with mid and high cloud
convective debris north of I-30. Lots of shower and thunderstorm
activity is brewing over E OK and central AR. The cool front is
snaking over the panhandles and central OK with NW winds gusting.
There is an outflow boundary over N AR with NE winds into W AR and
E OK. The HRRR continues with convection along these features for
several hours yet this morning, but we may have to wait for
better heating to see coverage edging in the front door later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, we are warm and breezy with 84 in Texarkana for the
hot spot and some mid to upper 70s for the coolest scattered
around. Many locales are around 80 or so with low to mid 70 dew
points. The clouds arriving will continue to thin with good
heating under initial subsidence early today, ushering the
mercury back into the mid 90 degree range for most of our area.
The Heat Advisory continues through today and expires at 7pm this
evening. And this will be the last one for a while as we have been
advertising in light of cooler temps, clouds and rainfall.

The HRRR shows our better coverage unfolding in the late
afternoon across SE OK and NE TX as a 588dam upper low moves SE
over OK into our area. The cool pool and frontal zone will
continue to sink into the muggy air and could add a little
compressional heat, but the movement is very slow. Eitherway,
this range of 90s today will be the last hot day we have to face
for a while. The SPC day 1 has a Marginal Risk for severe with
moderate to strong destabilization with the cool pool nudge and
damaging wind threat with robust updrafts bring rain cooled air
down into the summer heat. The lack of shear is limiting better
organization and thus just the Marginal Risk. The WPC has higher
totals with a Slight Risk for excessive amounts. Their QPF
overnight primarily has solid 1 to near 2 inches expectations. All
of what we see to our north today, should drop down over our
region for a wet Thursday with a cooler range of 80s most
everywhere, but still some near 90s across our southern tier for
Thursday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The greater QPF amounts will sink across our I-20 corridor by late
on Thursday. The 1022mb surface high will situate in the midWest
and upper OH River Valley. So it will take a while for the
backdoor winds to filter in overnight Thursday. The front will
become nearly stationary, slowly sinking southward into Friday and
Saturday, clearing weather out of our I-30 corridor into the
weekend, but keeping the high chance wording over deep east TX
and our Parishes for Saturday. Then this boundary will begin to
shift back northward with widespread coverage of convection for
us again areawide by Sunday as another mid level disturbance
deepens the H500 trough over the plains during the late weekend.
So our 7 day QPF posted by WPC is looking at 2 to 4 inch totals,
which adds confidence to a continuation of cloudiness, better
than average rain chances and cooler than average temperatures for
the weekend and early to mid next week as well. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the 17/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with just some
upstream cirrus spilling south of the Red River into parts of NE
Texas. This cirrus is associated with convection just to our north
along an advancing cold front moving through the Southern Plains
and Ozarks. As we approach daybreak, some patchy low stratus will
be possible over parts of lower East Texas before lifting into a
cu field later in the day. As the front to our north approaches
our northern airspace late in the TAF period, convection will be
possible around/after 18/00Z at TXK/ELD so have included VCTS at
these sites. Otherwise, look for light S/SW winds to increase by
15Z between 5-10 kts, then become more variable by 18/00Z ahead
of the approaching cold front.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  75  84  73 /  20  50  80  30
MLU  97  73  87  71 /  30  50  80  40
DEQ  92  69  83  67 /  50  60  50  10
TXK  95  73  83  69 /  40  60  60  10
ELD  94  70  82  67 /  40  70  70  20
TYR  97  73  83  71 /  20  40  60  20
GGG  96  73  84  71 /  10  50  70  30
LFK  97  74  91  72 /  10  30  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19