069
FXUS64 KSHV 171936
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current visible satellite imagery shows a surface low spinning
across portions of Oklahoma. This low will be the catalyst for our
first round of thunderstorms through the evening hours, and into
tomorrow morning. This remnant MCS will first move east into C.
Arkansas, where some heavy rainfall may be possible overnight in
our far northern zones. Additionally, a few of these storms may
be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat
with any storm that does become severe. Thankfully, this threat
is relatively marginal, with only a marginal risk from the SPC in
place for locations north of I-20.

This MCS will begin to drop south overnight, as the cold front
begins to force its hand. Here, additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the day tomorrow, with
heavy rainfall being possible with these as well. With their mid-
day update, the WPC has introduced a slight risk for excessive
rainfall for our portions of E. Texas and NW. Louisiana. Isolated
flash flooding could be possible during this timeframe, but most
guidance has this MCS progressing through the region at a rather
reasonable rate. In turn, widespread flash flooding is not
anticipated, with most locations seeing between 2-4 inches of
rainfall into Friday.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Longwave troughing will continue to work into the region through
the weekend, reinforcing itself into Monday. This will allow for
cooler air to remain filtering into the region, with afternoon
highs running around five degrees below normal. As better rain
chances return to the region by Monday, some locations could run
10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs hovering in the mid
to upper-80s. Given the location of this troughing, and a few
disturbances riding the upper-level flow, rain chances will linger
for most of the long-term.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the 17/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with just some
upstream cirrus spilling south of the Red River. This cirrus is
associated with convection just to our north along an advancing
cold front moving through the Southern Plains and Ozarks. Some
patchy low stratus will be possible around LFK early in the pd
before lifting into a cu field later in the day. As the front to
our north approaches our northern airspace late this afternoon,
convection will be possible around/after 18/00Z at TXK/ELD and
farther south toward our I-20 terminals by mid to late evening so
have included SHRA/VCTS at most sites. Otherwise, look for light
S/SW winds to increase by 15Z between 5-10 kts, then become more
variable by 18/00Z ahead of the approaching cold front.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  87  73  87 /  70  70  50  40
MLU  73  89  71  85 /  60  80  60  60
DEQ  70  83  67  86 /  80  60  10  10
TXK  73  85  70  86 /  70  70  20  20
ELD  70  83  68  83 /  70  80  30  30
TYR  74  86  71  87 /  50  60  30  30
GGG  73  85  71  86 /  60  70  40  30
LFK  73  88  71  86 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20