405
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
459 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast for the short-term,
as this MCS continues to meander slowly off to the east. Rain
chances will be tied to this MCS, with the best rain chances also
shifting east over the next 36-hours. No severe weather is
expected during this timeframe, but a strong thunderstorm or two
certainly isn`t out of the question. Given the rain and cloud
cover, highs tomorrow will range in the mid to upper-80s, with
overnight lows tonight ranging in the mid-60s to low-70s.
However, more cold air will filter into the region by tomorrow
night, with lows dropping into the low-60s north, to upper-60s
south.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Not much has changed in the long-term either regarding unsettled
weather. Upper-level troughing will remain overhead for the
foreseeable future, with various disturbances riding the flow
aloft. Towards the middle of next week, it looks like the
troughing will degrade enough to put us into a spring like "SW
flow" pattern. Here will likely be our best chance for more organized
precipitation, with better rain chances in the forecast for all
three days to start next week. In turn, look for milder
temperatures to remain in the forecast as well, with afternoon
highs remaining in the low to mid-80s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Upper level low spinning across Deep East Texas attm and is
forecast to continue moving slowly south and east through this
TAF period. Scattered showers continue dot the radar across NE TX,
SW AR and N LA attm and this activity may dissipate after sunset
tonight, only to possibly redevelop late tonight, mainly across
the eastern half of our airspace. For this TAF cycle, did prevail
VCSH across most terminals until around 06z. Kept VCSH going at
the MLU and LFK terminals all night and through the predawn hours
before ending mention by late morning into the afternoon on Fri.
Will have to watch for ceilings lowering to MVFR and even IFR
categories overnight tonight but any flight restricted ceilings
should return to low VFR heights by late morning and into the
afternoon. Winds will be mostly from the north to northwest with
speeds generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  88  72  92 /  40  10   0  10
MLU  72  85  70  90 /  60  60  20  30
DEQ  66  88  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  69  89  68  91 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  67  84  66  90 /  50  20   0  10
TYR  72  89  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  72  88  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
LFK  73  88  71  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13