918
FXUS64 KSHV 191550
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1050 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The synoptic pattern which looks to define the course of this
forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area
of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its
axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West,
while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across
the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains. It is not an
exaggeration to say that the above captures the days ahead of us
in full, and this forecast period may be simply defined as
unsettled.

This morning, a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary will continue
producing areas of showers and storms across the southeastern corner
of the ArkLaTex. These areas of rainfall look to continue for much
of the daylight hours today, tapering off at last towards the alter
evening. Organized severe weather is not anticipated, but training
areas of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across an area
extending from Toledo Bend Country to the ArkLaMiss. Conditions
will remain mostly quiet overnight into Saturday, before another
round of storms impacts our southeastern third as the boundary
lifts north again.

Temperatures throughout will remain near or just below average, with
highs today climbing into the mid to upper 80s, falling to lows in
the middle 60s to lower 70s, and climbing into the upper 80s and
lower 90s again Saturday.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Saturday`s storms will linger overnight, becoming more widespread
into the day Sunday as a fresh disturbance swings into the region on
the troughing aloft. Areawide rainfall chances will thereafter
continue through to the end of this long term forecast period,
oscillating in coverage and confidence as further disturbances ride
the flow aloft. The latest long range model guidance indicates
particular confidence in widespread rainfall Monday afternoon

As the upper level ridging aloft begins to reassert itself and build
somewhat eastward, the upper level pattern will resemble the
northwest flow so characteristic of springtime in the ArkLaTex.
Fortunately, as of this writing, the highest SWO category including
the ArkLaTex is General Thunder. The eRO, meanwhile, indicates the
possibility of heavy rainfall resulting in areas of flash flooding,
and this eventuality will be monitored closely through the coming
days.

This weekend may turn out to see the warmest afternoons of this long
range forecast, with Sunday`s lower 90s returning to mid to upper
80s Monday, where they will remain for the rest of the week. Lows
will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

IFR cigs have developed early this morning across Lower E TX
along/S of I-20, with a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs farther E across N
LA where isolated to more numerous areas of convection have
developed near a weak shear axis that has begun to drift SE
through extreme SE TX/Cntrl and NE LA. Brief IFR cigs may spread
into SHV through mid-morning, but should begin to lift/scatter out
here and across Lower E TX. MVFR cigs should persist though at
MLU where the convection will linger through at least mid-morning
before beginning to diminish. While an extensive cu field should
develop later this morning through the afternoon, these cigs
should eventually scatter out by mid to late afternoon, with the
cu field possibly lingering tonight across NE LA. Patchy FG also
can`t be ruled out late tonight across portions of N LA/Deep E TX
but low confidence precludes mention for the affected terminals
attm. NE winds 5-8kts today will become light NE after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  93  74 /  10   0  10  10
MLU  86  70  91  71 /  50  20  20  20
DEQ  87  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  66  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  65  91  68 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  89  70  91  73 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  89  70  91  71 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  88  71  90  71 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20